GD Update: Death Of A Baby Blog
Only a few emails have trickled in over the last 6 months wondering what happened to General Disdain, and I can sum it up for you in a single sentence: All of GD’s various contributors have full time jobs, and while we all enjoyed working on the blog, we all realized at various intervals that running a general interest blog and attempting to keep it current was sucking up more of our lives than we had intended.
Thanks to everyone who stopped by during this blog’s brief April to December run, we had fun. The site will stay up in its current form for a while, and perhaps a rebirth will occur down the road.
We’ll leave you for now with one more post by Gluford Tannen (below) , simply because it’s both great work and important knowledge. Take it easy, everybody.
-Keifer
The New Barkeep: A Life Lesson
Since I’m an unemployed deadbeat loser I spend the occasional weekday afternoon as a patron of my favorite watering hole. The good people at said watering hole treat me very well and in turn I treat them very well, too. (Translation: They give me free beer and I tip them way too much. It’s a win-win.) I’ve been on a first name basis with the bartender for going on a year and a half now and each time I waltz in there we share a few stories and have a few laughs. It’s been great.
Yesterday I awoke and decided that it was a good day to slake my thirst. I scooted down to the watering hole expecting another garden-variety day at the pub going through my normal you-give-me-free-beer-and-I’ll-tip-you-well routine. I’d get a good sandwich and some chili, drink a few pops, banter with the bar staff, and read a good book. But when I walked in to the pub I realized it was going to be a day unlike any other: my bartender was gone.
In her place was a completely new bartender that I’d never seen before. My world was turned upside down. Would I now have to pay full price for a beer? Would the new barkeep appreciate my quirky wit and razor sharp banter? Would I commit some unknown pub-related social faux pas and be forever cursed with crappy service and high prices? I was faced with quite the conundrum: how do I get the mildly attractive new bartender to comp me free beer?
A situation such as this requires a delicate balance, particularly since the new bartender was a fairly attractive woman working in a bar whose patrons are mostly scruffy physics professors and wannabe hipsters. If you are shy and quiet, you will be just like every other nerdy grad student that frequents the pub. If you are too friendly, she will think that you are either 1) trying to hit on her, 2) being fake-friendly in a futile attempt to get free beer, or 3) all of the above.
There is a specific set of moves you must make in a “new bartender” situation. While it is possible to execute it all in the first day, it will typically take a few days since time is the only sure-fire way to prove that you are a regular.
Step One: The Pick-Up Line. No, I don’t mean hit on her. The Pick-Up Line is a way to subtly but overtly show the new bartender that you are not just some average joe off the street, but that you are well versed in the libations of the establishment. In this particular setting, be sure to see if there are any new beers offered—preferably seasonal—and say something to the effect of, “Oh, I see that you’re carrying such-and-such now.” By using The Pick-Up Line as your first words to the new bartender you have shown that this is not your first time in the pub and—more importantly—that you are fluent in the varieties of beers offered. You are not a rookie, no, you are a savvy Veteran Of The Bar!
Step Two: Be Consistent. This step usually requires appearances at the watering hole on at least two different days. You should consistently order your favorite beverage from the new barkeep. This will etch your face and tastes into her mind. You will be easier to remember if you’re “the IPA guy”. However, you must be certain that your drink is appropriate for the ambience/patronage. Example: ordering a class of merlot at an Irish pub. You’ll be remembered not as the cool regular, but rather as the effeminate douche-bag who is unworthy of beers on the house. That being said, certain drinks are appropriate in some locations and not others. Cider can be one of these hermaphrodites. Ordering cider at an Irish pub is okay, but ordering it at a brewpub is not. If your favorite watering hole is a brewpub, find a one of their good beers and stick with it. If it’s not a brewpub, find a good microbrew—preferably local—and stick with it. Manny’s or Mac & Jack’s are good ones.
Step Three: Go For The Intro. Once the new barkeep remembers you as “the IPA guy” (or whatever your drink of choice is), introduce yourself to her. Bartenders will not comp beers to anyone with whom they are not on a first name basis. Once you have introduced yourself, make some light conversation, preferably about something a bit more substantive than the weather. You should come off as polite and intelligent (not to mention a good tipper). One word of warning: do not Bogart the bartender’s time. There are other people at the bar who need attention too. You are not her only source of tips.
Step Four: Patience. This is very, very important. Once you have used The Pick-Up Line, been consistent, and gone for the intro, you must wait. Never, ever, EVER ask for free beer. In the world of pubs the barkeep is the omnipotent god of the universe. You exist at the pub solely at her discretion. While the good barkeep can be benevolent, she can also be wrathful and quick to anger. Asking for free beer is hubris that will not be tolerated.
It probably won’t happen during your first encounter with the new barkeep. It probably won’t work the time after that, or the time after the time after that. But with patience, consistency, and good tipping, the free beer will flow.
Week 13 NFL Picks
Tonight’s game only is below. The rest of the Week 13 picks will be up tomorrow are up.
New York Jets (-1) sort of @ Buffalo Bills
This game is in Toronto. If I recall last season’s Toronto experiment, the crowd was odd, lukewarm, and seemingly confused about what was going on on the field. Canada has their own football league, Toronto has its own team in said league, and without doing any research whatsoever, don’t those teams do fairly well fan-wise? What’s Toronto’s motivation to get behind an American football team, exactly? Were they clamoring for this? I have so many questions! Matter of fact, the American commissioner of the NHL won’t let Hamilton, a suburb of Toronto, have their own hockey team, and I know for a fact they’re clamoring for that. Right, the football game. I’d be lying if I said I had any good reason for liking the Jets in this game, they’ve lost to the same crappy team (Miami) that the Bills beat last week, and they’ve done so twice. They’ve already lost once to Buffalo at home. It’s inexplicable, but if I’m laying money on this game, I’m taking the Jets. How’s that for analysis?
The Pick: NY Jets (-1)
–Update–
I was short of time this week so only a limited amount of pithy analysis. I did, however, do the research I failed to do for Thanksgiving (though I did end up with a winning record last week as well as hitting a three teamer). Home team is listed second in every matchup, the picked team is in bold.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons*
No Turner, no Ryan, no Jenkins, no cover for the Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers
DeAngelo Williams doesn’t look like he’s going to play, and I’m not sure about Jonathan Stewart’s achilles and a full workday. Carolina’s starting Matt Moore at QB. I like the points.
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) @ Chicago Bears
Steven Jackson is the difference maker here. He’s said he’s going to play but is concerned about how his back will respond in the cold. Chicago is so uneven I wouldn’t pick them to beat anyone by double digits.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (-14)
Tennessee Titans (+8) @ Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have just struggled so much lately to put mediocre teams away. I don’t necessarily think the Titans will break the Colt’s winning streak, just that they’ll keep it close.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (PK)
The only time to put money on Jacksonville is at home (after all, it’s quiet there). They’re still battling for a playoff spot and this game is probably their last best chance to put themselves in the driver’s seat. I think a better output than usual is on tap.
Denver Broncos (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any chance at the playoffs means beating the teams you’re supposed to beat.
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-11.5)
If this wasn’t in Pittsburgh, and if the Steelers didn’t need a win so badly, I might take the Raiders to cover. I now realize that last sentence has no bearing on this bet whatsoever.
New Orleans Saints (-9.5) @ Washington Redskins*
I will take the Saints to cover a single digit spread against any team in the league for the rest of the season barring them resting their starters.
New England Patriots (-5) @ Miami Dolphins
The Pats tend to struggle in Florida, that’s a certainty. However, down the stretch, I prefer to gamble on the team that needs it more. The Pats need a win desperately after two straight (embarrassing) losses.
San Diego Chargers (-13.5) @ Cleveland Browns
The Browns defense is better than you think. Having said that, I’d be more concerned if the weather wasn’t just cold and clear. I don’t think the Chargers drop this one. They are charging (wah wah) in the playoffs where they can disappoint in the first round.
Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ New York Giants
Yikes, I don’t like taking Dallas on the road in New York. But the Giants have looked terrible for weeks now. Barring some kind of Brandon Jacobs resurrection, I don’t see what changes for the Giants to get the W.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (PK)
I don’t want Alex Smith on the road in Qwest Field. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Niners won, but it’s not what I think is going to happen. And that’s the point, right?
Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals*
Amazing what a difference a year makes. Last year, the Cards struggled on the road and played very well at home, and their offense was explosive and dynamic. This year? The Cardinals have been terrible at home for the most part and it’s Minnesota’s offense that’s the explosive juggernaut. Kurt Warner or no, I don’t think the Cards D is going to be able to contain the Grape Crush (with apologies to Broncos fans).
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers
Place me firmly in the camp of “not convinced” when it comes to the Packers second half resurgence. That’s a house of cards.
Week 12: 8-7-1
Season: 93-79-3
3 Team Tease: 2-4
Week 12 NFL Picks
Had today’s games all lined up and forgot to hit “Publish”. Sunday’s picks will be are up…sometime before 10 AM PST on Sunday. Happy Turkey Day!
Green Bay Packers (-13) @ Detroit Lions
Green Bay’s busted defense vs. Detroit’s broken down offense. Let’s take the points.
The Pick: Detroit (+13)
Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys (-14)
Might be the wrong call here, but I can’t help but take the points after Oakland stole one last week and Dallas looked like hell against the Redskins.
The Pick: Oakland (+14)
NY Giants (-6) @ Denver Broncos
I’m taking the Giants to cover simply because I don’t think Orton is healthy enough to be effective AND Denver can’t run the ball at all.
The Pick: NY Giants (-6)
–Saturday Update–
I owe you an apology. This is supposed to be a gambling column, not a sports opinion column, despite all evidence to the contrary. And those picks right there? Those picks up there? Those picks are not the work of a seasoned gambler, but someone who was more interested in looking smart than actually getting picks correct. I am disgusted with myself for putting that up there knowing full well I spent next to no time looking into things like injuries, the weather, specific defensive and offensive success and failure, and all the other little things I do when trying to make a pick that would make me money.
So, I Keifer Nandez, do solemnly swear that if I’m going to post picks with no research, I’ll put a disclaimer up there saying so. Not as a built in excuse for being wrong – but to ensure that any other degenerates out there wagering their mortgage based on this idiot’s opinion won’t blame any losses incurred on said idiot for starting the week 0-3 because he was preoccupied with gorging himself on a Thanksgiving feast.
Speaking of the holidays, as I was deciding on a picture for this week’s post, I came across reason #428 why it sucks to live in New England in the winter. Because during Week 11 at a Patriots game…
…somebody’s hot mom shakes pom poms for the Pats in her winter clothes. Meanwhile, on the very same day in Tampa…
…these girls twirled around in the most ridiculous excuse for a “skirt” that I’ve ever seen. So remember, when getting excited about the Patriots being the team of the decade, there’s a reason Tampa Bay can suck year after year and nobody really cares. Also available in Tampa…
…the Variety Pack. It has something for everyone.
See? I told you I’d make it up to you. As always (except for my earlier lapse), these are the picks I’d make if I was in a sports book with a was of cash in my hand.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-12.5)
Tampa’s has this thing for covering against mediocre teams. Sure, they got blown out by the Saints and the Patriots, but they covered against Carolina, Green Bay, and Miami. Then again, they are going on the road against a team that’s needed to run well to win, and Tampa boasts the league’s worst rushing defense. All that running’s gonna burn clock, and I just don’t like the Falcons to win by 13. Frankly, I’d stay away from this. And if you didn’t think I was genuinely sorry for my terrible picks from Thursday, I just spent at least 15 minutes working up a way to pick this game that I couldn’t care less about.
The Pick: Tampa Bay (+12.5)
Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills
I don’t particularly like Miami in the cold weather locale, but Buffalo’s offense has been so terrible it’s hard to wager on them to cover any kind of spread, let alone win. They scored 15 points last week and everyone got all excited simply because it was a good game for Terrell Owens. If Marshawn Lynch didn’t look like he’s suddenly turned into the useless version of Shaun Alexander (run 3 yards and fall down), I might think Buffalo could manufacture something. As it is, I’ll take Ricky Williams to run roughshod all over Buffalo’s terrible run defense.
The Pick: Miami (-3)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-15)
Sure, Cleveland exploded for 37 points while the Bengals laid an egg in Oakland, but I don’t think I can help but assume that was an aberration on both counts – a product of the vulnerable defense of the Detroit Lions and an emotional letdown for Cincinnati a week after sweeping Baltimore. If I’d had to pick this in Week 10, I would taken Cincy in a heartbeat. I will admit that last week’s results make me feel less confident in this pick, but it’s still the right call.
The Pick: Cincinnati (-15)
Indianapolis Colts (-4) @ Houston Texans*
I’ve seen this mentioned as a potential upset in more than one place this week. Two things about that? Why pick against the Colts against a team like Houston? The Colts have the game’s best closer in Peyton Manning, and the Texans continue to demonstrate week after week that they can’t get it done in crunch time.
The Pick: Indianapolis (-4)
Carolina Panthers @ NY Jets (-2.5)
This is like the mediocrity bowl. Two 4-6 teams battle for the right to say they suck less! Two turnover prone embattled quarterbacks struggle to salvage their seasons! Let’s hope just for the sake on entertainment these teams both stay heavy on the ground and we see a couple of breakaways. That scenario favors the Panthers just a tad, right? Say, 3 points worth?
The Pick: Carolina (-2.5)
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
The Redskins’ strength is in their secondary, which may result in the big play potential of the Eagles being neutralized. But a big day for LeSean McCoy isn’t out of the question, and I like the single digit spread in this case. I do hate betting on the Eagles, though. They always seem to be the worst good team to bet on, because their quarterback and coach can be so maddeningly inconsistent. The feel like they should be better than 6-4. Dammit, I just “seed of doubted” myself. Gut says Eagles. I’m sticking with it.
The Pick: Philadelphia (-9)
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams*
I would have picked the Seahawks even if Marc Bulger hadn’t broken his leg. Steven Jackson still scares the crap out of me, but I think the Hawks will be able to move the ball this week as well. I like Seattle to win, and with the small spread, that’s enough.
The Pick: Seattle (-2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-14.5)
The Chargers are starting to get “The Look”, after staying true to Norv Turner tradition and spending the first third of the season looking like crap. The only thing that worries me here is the possibility of a Chris Chambers Revenge Game. Ultimately, I believe the Charger offense is going to put up enough points that taking them to cover feels like the right thing to do. The chances of the shootout are less than 50% in my opinion, and I think a shootout is the only way the Chiefs can cover.
The Pick: San Diego (-14.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco Giants (-3)
I’m not sure I understand this line. The Jags are 6-4 versus the Niners’ 4-6. We went over this with Jacksonville last week – they win but fail to cover against crappy teams and get blown out by good teams. Sure, that rule’s only really applied when they’ve been favored, but their close calls have been against some of the dregs of the league. The Niners’ willingness to put up a fight is enough for me.
The Pick: San Francisco (-3)
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)*
Have we had a Jay Cutler “mic’d up” yet? I’ve got to wonder what he says to his team in the huddle. I feel like he mumbles the play then shouts at the first person to ask him to repeat himself, all the while shaking his head like they are the idiots for not hearing his play call. Then I bet he pouts and leaves after the game without saying a word to anyone. Jay sure does look like he feels sorry for himself. Life is so haaard as a quarterback! Oh, right, the game. The Vikings win going away.
The Pick: Minnesota (-9.5)
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (-3)
I don’t particularly like the Cards traveling East, and I’d stay away from this because of Kurt Warner’s questionable status. I’ll assume he can’t go and that Matt Leinart can’t get it done against the resurgent Titans. I expect the Vince Young/Chris Johnson tandem to be effective on the ground, and that should be good enough to get the W.
The Pick: Tennessee (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-2)
It’s the “Hey, Aren’t These Teams Supposed To Be Good?” game of the week. Minus Troy Polamalu, and plus a recent Roethlisberger concussion, I can’t wager on the Steelers to get it done.
The Pick: Baltimore (-2)
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Now this is a quality Monday Night Football game. I don’t like it for betting purposes, but I sure am excited to watch it. I like the Saints in this game, and I can’t pick against an undefeated team with that offensive firepower versus a leaky-at-times New England defense. I believe Brady and his boys can keep it close though. Let’s all hope we get a 38-35 kinda game.
The Pick: New Orleans (-2.5)
Week 11: 9-7
Season: 85-72-2
3 Team Tease: 1-4
Week 11 NFL Picks
Tonight’s game only is below. The rest of the Week 10 picks will be have been delivered hot and fresh tomorrow just a scroll away.
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers (-3)
Jake Delhomme has gone three games without throwing a pick! Did you know that in all but one game this season, if Jake threw for less than 200 yards, the Panthers won? The only exception is the season opener, where he threw for only 73 yards, but completed four passes to the Eagles secondary. Seriously. Go see for yourself. The point? The point is that it seems as though John Fox has realized he has two talented backs and perhaps the best game plan when your QB keeps sucking is to let those fools run wild. Not to mention that the focus on the running game has elevated Original Steve Smith back to relevance. Oh, and Ronnie Brown hit the IR this week. I think that might matter too.
THE PICK: Carolina (-3)
–Friday Update–
She's not turning her head, Ricky Williams just ran by
You know what sucks about Thursday night football? Putting together the Friday picks update and watching your initial pick, right up top there for all the world to see, come completely apart right in front of your eyes. I do say, it is mightily distracting to know you totally blew it already once when trying to pick 15 other games. For what it’s worth, Jake Delhomme passed for more than 200 yards in this Carolina loss (and threw a pretty gross pick – Jake, if you’re going to have to sail the ball because you’re under pressure, over the middle of the field is probably not the best place to do it). So, at the very least, some piece of my analysis was prescient.
The problem for Carolina last night was defense. Who knew there was no answer for Ricky Williams? And how about the speed displayed by those 32 year old legs? Ricky scored TDs off the edge two different times in this game, and ran for tough yards up the middle as well. I’m interested to see how this progresses over the last 6 weeks of the season – sure, Carolina’s run D is pretty terrible, but Miami only sees one more Top 10 rushing defense the rest of the way (the #1 Steelers, in Week 17). Suddenly, Miami looks primed for a first round playoff exit.
At least the game was fun to watch last night. It’s Friday, I’m in a good mood, let’s make some money.
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (PK)*
I’m not going to bother rehashing the Pats’ choke Colts’ win last week. Nothing that happened changed my feelings about how this game is going to play out. The Ravens have a better ground game, but in order for that to really come into play, they’d have to build an early lead. Both these teams have issues in the secondary. One team has Joe Flacco and Derrick Mason. The other team has Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne.
THE PICK: Indianapolis
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-12)
I personally am not offended by the term “Redskins”. I understand that it’s offensive, but I’ve never heard it used in offensive fashion, so perhaps my naiveté renders me unable of being objective about how offensive it really is. I discussed this recently with a Native American acquaintance, and he summed it up thusly: “No, it doesn’t bother me, but that’s mostly because I don’t care. Rich white people have been doing whatever they like for centuries in this country, what’s to change it now? Imagine if Oakland was the ‘Oakland Darkies’. That’s about the equivalent of what it’s like.” Ok then, time to change THAT nickname! Still, the small child in me who grew up before political correctness enjoys the fact that these two teams are playing “Cowboys and Indians” this weekend.
THE PICK: Washington (+12)
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)
When I first wrote this, I accidentally typed Cavaliers instead of Browns. All this “Could LeBron play in the NFL?” talk clearly has me distracted. Or, perhaps the Browns are just so terrible that I’ve started to block out their existence. Speaking of LeBron, I saw a poll online somewhere on ESPN.com that I’m too lazy to go find asking whether LBJ could play in the NFL or not. The vote split was 60/40 in favor of “yes”. Are you other 40% just idiots or what? You don’t think the most dominant physical force we’ve ever seen in the NBA couldn’t play in the NFL? Are you Jeremy Shockey fans? The answer to that question is yes, yes, a thousand times yes, and if we were lucky enough to see it happen it would be one of the coolest sports stories of all time. You’d watch every single effing Browns’ game, that’s for damn sure.
THE PICK: Detroit (-3.5)
San Francisco @ Green Bay (-5.5)
I’m so confused by both of these teams. They both have numerous warts, but also both feel like teams that could beat any team on any given week. I want to believe that last week’s win over Dallas was a turning point for the Packers, but there’s nothing about a win over the Cowboys that makes me feel good about betting on Green Bay. Dallas just stinks of fraud. Let’s look at it from this angle: The Niners beat a terrible Bears team by 4 last week, barely hanging on to the victory after Jay Cutler threw his fifth interception. 5 turnovers should equal a sizeable win against what has been a terrible defense. If Green Bay’s defense even plays at 80% of the level we saw against Dallas, the Packers should win easily (I typed that with such conviction, but I don’t believe a word of it. Stay away from this.)
THE PICK: Green Bay (-5.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-8) @ Buffalo Bills
Could the Jags hose me one more time please? I have not picked one Jags game correctly all season. Take that as fair warning. I’m going to analyze this from a completely objective standpoint, with no actual football factors involved. What’s Jax done against the spread this year?
Week 1 – 7 point dogs to Indy – covered and lost 14-12
Week 2 – 3 point favorites over Arizona – lost 31-17
Week 3 – 3.5 point dogs to Houston – won 31-24
Week 4 – 3 point dogs to TEN – won 37-17
Week 5 – PK with Seattle – lost 41-0
Week 6 – 10 point dogs to STL – failed to cover but won 23-20
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – 3 point dogs to TEN (déjà vu) – lost 30-13
Week 9 – 6.5 point favorites over KC – failed to cover but won 24-21
Week 10 – 7 point dogs to the Jets – won 24-22
So they haven’t covered as a favorite once this year. That’s enough for me.
THE PICK: Buffalo (+8) Gross!
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs*
Pittsburgh’s got talent, they have just struggled in some big spots this year. It seems that Big Ben’s late game luck may have finally started to balance out. That said, the Steelers may have struggled against quality teams, but they have little trouble beating up on the league’s weak sisters.
THE PICK: Pittsburgh (-10)
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-11)
The Vikings did struggle to cover the 15.5 against Detroit, and I don’t like laying this many points, but at home, against a team that does not play well on the road and who simply doesn’t have the horses to cover all the Vikings’ weapons and has folded over and over again this season? I like the Vikings, and I like them big.
THE PICK: Minnesota (-11)
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-7)
I don’t know what to make of the Falcons. What I do know is that if you look at their record this year, they haven’t beaten anyone who I believe to be as good as or better than the Giants, and they have lost to teams that I believe to be worse than the Giants. As long as the Giants QB is Eli Manning I’m looking at the weather report for East Rutherford, and it looks pretty mild this weekend in New Jersey. Sounds like a Giants win to me.
THE PICK: NY Giants (-7)
New Orleans Saints (-11.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
The Saints have failed to cover two weeks in a row against relatively crappy teams (St. Louis, Carolina) when faced with a double digit spread. But taking the points means betting on Josh Freeman, Derrick Ward, and Head Coach Raheem Morris. No thank you.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-11.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-9) @ St. Louis Rams
On the other side of the duvet, the Rams have covered two games in a row, and Steven Jackson is now officially having one of the greatest “Great Player on a Bad Team” seasons in recent NFL history. Arizona is still suspect on D, but I feel like too many things have to go right for the Rams to cover here.
THE PICK: Arizona (-9)
San Diego Chargers (-3) @ Denver Broncos
This game is now OFF on every betting site I can find (call it the Kyle Orton Factor). But I did see this 3 point line earlier in the week so that’s what we’re going with. Sorry Broncos fans, I don’t see the losing streak ending this week, San Diego is taking care of business lately. Also, if Chris Simms really is the starter, you’re fucked from the get-go.
THE PICK: San Diego (-3)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-10.5)
I’m just going with Angry Belichick here.
THE PICK: New England (-10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) @ Oakland Raiders
It sucks when your solution at QB is Bruce Gradkowski. I suppose there’s a chance this thing could be close, when you consider that the Bengals top two offensive weapons are going to be MIA (Benson to injury, Ochocinco to the Nnamdi Asomugha fantasy points black hole), but then again, Bruce Gradkowski.
THE PICK: Cincinnati (-9.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-2) @ Chicago Bears
Really? Two points? Against the Bears? I realize Brian Westbrook is important, but didn’t the Eagles just beat the holy hell out of the Giants without him? I’d tease this but the Eagles coach is still Andy Reid, and god forbid they let the Bears hang around.
THE PICK: Philadelphia (-2)
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
I’m always curious about the fan dynamic in games like these. Certainly there must be old Houston Oilers fans that followed the team to Tennessee and never made the switch, right? I’d like to watch this game at a bar in Houston surrounded by both kinds of fans. If an enterprising University of Houston anthropology major wants to study this and write it up, you can run it here. At any rate, while Tennessee certainly is fun to watch and Chris Johnson seems to be a mix of young LaDainian Tomlinson and Barry Sanders, it’s hard to bet on a team that’s yet to beat anyone with a winning record. I fully believe Tennessee can win this game, but I don’t think they’re going to.
THE PICK: Houston (-3.5)
Week 10: 8-7
Season: 76-65-2
3 Team Tease: 1-3
Before I sign off for the weekend, I feel compelled to explain the 3 team tease payoff here. Sure, I’m 1-3 since I started tracking but a three team tease generally pays out at minimum 12-1, so the one victory covers 12 weeks of additional betting. Also, I wouldn’t make this bet every week, but I’m just offering my opinion on what three teamer I’d bet. Do with it what you will. The point is, even if you only hit 2 three teamers all season, you’d end up in the black.
Week 10 NFL Picks
Tonight’s game only is below. The rest of the Week 10 picks will be have been delivered hot and fresh tomorrow just a scroll away.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)
These teams are remarkable similar, except in their strengths. Both have massive questions on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. Both are underachieving and looking like they have no shot to make the playoffs. But the 49ers have something important the Bears lack, something that’s particularly important when two crappy teams face off: a running game. Sure, the Bears have Jay Cutler at QB, and no matter how hard you want to try and sell me on the “resurrection” of Alex Smith, he’s still not Jay Cutler. But while Cutler is probably good for 2-3 TD passes, he’s probably also good for at least one backbreaking pick. I say between that and Frank Gore, the Niners get a W.
THE PICK: San Francisco (-3)
–Friday Update–
I haven’t had occasion this season to feature the 49ers cheerleaders, or the “Gold Rush” to those in the know. After spending a few minutes skimming through pictures, I do declare that I have been missing out. Perhaps I would have known that after last night, but what the hell is up with the NFL Network’s HD? It’s on an HD channel, my TV is connected with an HDMI cable, there’s a little “NFL HD” logo in the upper right corner, but I can say with unequivocal certainty that the game last night was not in HD. The picture was nearly as bad as Fox Sports’ “HD” coverage, a service my cronies and I have taken to calling “Ah-chay Day” as if it were the Mexican equivalent of HD.
Lies!
Get it together, NFLN. I have to pay extra already to get your stupid channel, I’d rather it not look like everyone was covered in a fine layer of digital hair. Perhaps I’m spoiled, but I’ve been watching sports in HD long enough now that I’ve forgotten what it’s like to see a game that looks like shit (and this is coming from a guy who has watched a World Series in a parking lot with rabbit ears – “Is that the ball?! I don’t know. Did he catch it?! Who? Which team is that?!”). I’m willing to deal with it begrudgingly when I’ve got no other choice, but when I kick back with a beer in the comfort of my own home to enjoy the NFL on a weekday evening (which I love), I want the best picture possible, and right now, NFLN is not delivering.
Nice to start the week off on a high note with a 49ers cover, let’s see what the rest of the weekend has in store.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers
Both these teams can run the ball, and each are facing the 24th and 23rd ranked run defense, respectively. So if we call that a wash, we’ve got to look at the passing game. Matt Ryan has been pretty terrible the last few weeks, but Jake Delhomme was abjectly horrendous for weeks prior. I think this is a winnable game for Carolina, but I also think the Falcons might still be a playoff team, and if I’m right about that, then they have to win here.
THE PICK: Atlanta (-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-10)
What the hell was the deal last week with Green Bay? Are they that cooked? It’s not like Tampa looked good, Green Bay just couldn’t do anything. I’ve been vascillating on my opinion of Miami week to week, but other than the Ted Ginn game against the Jets, they have looked pretty effective, and they’ve lost some heartbreakers to good teams. It’s not that I don’t think Miami is going to win, but I don’t like laying 10, I don’t like it at all.
THE PICK: Miami (-10)
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-15.5)*
Let me put it this way. In a fantasy league, I am starting both Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin.
THE PICK: Minnesota (-15.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-7.5)
Lots of talk this week about how it feels like the Jags are something like 2-6, despite the fact that both of these teams are 4-4. The Jags, however, are 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road, and can’t cover to save their lives. Their 3 home wins? A drubbing of Tennessee in Week 4, followed by 3 point wins over St. Louis and Kansas City. That is really really gross. Meanwhile their average margin of defeat on the road is 20 (by 2 to Indy, by 41 (!) to Seattle, and then by 17 to Tennessee). I originally liked the Jags to cover here because I hardly believe in the Jets, but the more I look at what Jax has done this year, the more I expect them to get rolled.
THE PICK: NY Jets (-7.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Do you believe that the Steelers lost to the Bears in week 2? That’s not relevant, I just wanted to point it out because it’s shameful and I hate the Steelers. I’m coming around on the Bengals, particularly after the season sweep of Baltimore. But, looking at Cincy’s schedule, they really haven’t been tested on the road (@GB, @CLE, @BAL). I don’t necessarily think the Bengals are going to win, but I like them to keep it close.
THE PICK: Cincinnati (+7.5)
New Orleans Saints (-14) @ St. Louis Rams*
Two weeks in a row that the Saints have failed to cover. Of course, that was a money maker for me last week, so who am I to complain. Look, Steven Jackson is going to get his yards, but St. Louis is terrible. Watch one of their games if you haven’t yet. Everybody but Jackson has a look on their face like they can’t wait for the season to end. When their down by 4 TDs in the 4th Quarter of this one, that look might become so prevalent on their sideline that your TV will start to emit an actual stench.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-14)
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Only two teams in the league would have their starting QB come off injury and not have a single fan excited for the boost that should give the team. As long as Vince Young has Chris Johnson, the Titans should continue to beat up on the bad teams left on their schedule.
THE PICK: Tennessee (-6.5)
Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins*
How bad have the Broncos looked in their two losses? They haven’t been able to do anything, and I mean anything at all, on offense. They don’t really have much of a run game and if Kyle Orton can’t check down, the Broncos offense sputters. The Redskins, though, are missing Chris Cooley, Clinton Portis, and now Ladell Betts has an ankle issue. If Roc Alexander is getting carries, you know the team is in trouble.
THE PICK: Denver (-4.5)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-1)
So, Kansas City has only won one game and the Raiders two? This game is horrible. What I do know is that over the course of the season when picking games, barring that Eagles fiasco, I’ve felt good picking the Raider games. What I haven’t felt good about and have struggled with is KC, which seems like they are capable of more week to week. What does that mean? I have no idea.
THE PICK: Kansas City (+1)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-9)
As I started to break down this game into strengths and weaknesses, I realized that the Seahawks are just a crappier version of Arizona. Questionable run game, huge issues in the defensive secondary, decent pass rush, awesome downfield passing game. Wait, that last one is just Arizona. Barring some kind of turnover mess, the Cardinals should win this one going away.
THE PICK: Arizona (-9)
Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has become a team that you don’t want to have money involved with, and I mean that both betting with and against them. They’re clearly talented, but their offensive line issues are too problematic to expect any consistency week to week. Unfortunately, teams like this sometimes have games where things go their way. Stay away from the Pack until something changes.
THE PICK: Dallas (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
Norv Turner vs. Andy Reid. Which team is going to have a late game clock-management gaffe in this one? After that debacle last week, I just can’t take the Eagles, particularly on the road. Let us not forget that the last time they visited the West Coast, they pooped their pants against Oakland. San Diego came through for me against the Giants, I’m sticking with them.
THE PICK: San Diego (-3)
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
I feel like the Pats are going to win this game. The Colts defensive issues scare me, particularly since it seems that Tom Brady continues to improve each week. That said, can you bet against Peyton Manning in a game like this one? I don’t know. Don’t put money on this one unless you want to be crying into your beer at the end of the night.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (-12)
I’m still not betting on Cleveland. Ever. At this point they should just get Josh Cribbs the ball on every play. It will be better than than anything else they’ve done all season.
THE PICK: Baltimore (-12)
Week 9: 8-4
Season: 69-58-2
3 Team Tease: 1-2
Week 9 NFL Picks
This is for you Ted Thompson! No, to kiss! No, not like that! Get away from me!
Did the NFL even happen last week? Other than the Monday night game with everyone and their brother leaping 4 feet off the ground to make some amazing catch and one of the most awful no-chance-to-win-but-going-to-ruin-your-bet-anyway field goals in recent history, I can’t remember another exciting moment from the NFL in Week 8. What’s that you say? A “Brett Favre” returned to Green Bay in a Vikings uniform and beat his old team? All the major sports news outlets were awash in coverage? The network had a special “Favre-Cam” that focused on Favre the whole game? Even when he was picking his nose on the sidelines? Fantastic!
Perhaps I just blocked the whole goddamn thing out.
But while we’re unfortunately spending time talking about Brett Favre, what are the odds that now that he’s exacted his revenge on Ted Thompson that he just mails in the rest of the season? Is there a chance that it was enough to beat the Packers at Lambeau or does he need a division title, maybe even another trophy? Brett, can you let us know how motivated you are? I’d like to potentially trade for you in fantasy but need to know you’re not going to start slinging ill advised picks next week.
Enough about the Vikings, they aren’t even playing in Week 9. Who do we care about this week?
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-10)
What’s left to say about Washington? The team just can’t execute. Everyone looks pissed off, and no one wants to play together. I thought the Falcons showed some heart on Monday night, it just didn’t go their way. I don’t like the 10 points here but I dislike the Redskins more.
THE PICK: Atlanta (-10)
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears (-3)
First of all, I hate this game and wouldn’t bet a dime on it. But since I have to pick someone, I’m going to say Arizona bounces back with a nice game against an overrated Chicago defense.
THE PICK: Arizona (+3)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Baltimore team that won last weekend looked a lot more like the machine that got off to a 3-0 start. They either figured something out in the secondary last week or it’s just true that Kyle Orton can’t throw the long ball. Part of me thinks Josh McDaniels’ West Coast hybrid offense just ran into a bad matchup. Ed Reed sat on the short routes, blitzed off the corner, and generally caused havoc and never once did Denver burn the Ravens deep. I think the Bengals go to work with a more aggressive passing game complimented by some hard running from CedBen (No? That doesn’t work? Damn.).
THE PICK: Cincinnati (-3)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-9)*
All of a sudden Colts defenders are dropping all over the place like old people during a heat wave. Shades of the 2006 Colts. What that means? It means that the Colts are going to win, but I don’t expect them to cover. Oh, and if you’re as fed up with Steve Slaton as I am, he suddenly became a worthy flex play even though you want to teach him a lesson and bench his ass just like Gary Kubiak did.
THE PICK: Houston (+9)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
The main story on ESPN.com for much of yesterday centered around the viability of the NFL in Jacksonville. The Jags blackout woes continue, which is ironic because at home is the only time you want to see this team. Let’s look at their season so far:
Week 4: Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville – WIN by 20
Week 5: Jacksonville @ Seattle (PK) – LOSE by 41
Week 6: St. Louis @ Jacksonville (-10) – WIN by 3
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-3) – LOSE by 17
The season didn’t start this way of course, the Jags gave the Colts a battle in Week 1 on the road, got smoked at home by the Cardinals in Week 2, then beat the Texans on the road in Week 3, but if I put that in my little list there, it wouldn’t support my argument, which is that the Chiefs are terrible and traveling east, and the Jags are better at home. Not that much better, but we’re playing the odds here.
THE PICK: Jacksonville (-6.5)
Green Bay Packers (-10.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
The Battle of the Bays! What’s with the teams in Tampa constantly named after the body of water rather than the city? I’ve always been told it’s because the area is Tampa Bay and includes St. Petersburg as well, and they wouldn’t want to alienate the people from St. Pete by only referring to the teams as being in “Tampa” (the Rays stadium is actually in St. Pete for what it’s worth). Are people in St. Petersburg fooled by this? “Oh, I feel included because you sais the team is from Tampa Bay, and that includes me!” Why not pull a Minneapolis/St.Paul deal and call yourself the Florida Buccaneers? Or better yet, the Florida Gemelos? Anyway, I don’t like hearing about Aaron Rodgers double foot-itis, but Tampa Bay is 29th in the league in sacks with 11 all season, so I’ll not worry myself about that.
THE PICK: Green Bay (-10.5)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-10.5)
I have no idea. The Pats are coming off a bye, but I still don’t like this spread. I don’t know why Miami keeps sucking me in, but they made me money last week. Can’t go against Belichick versus a division opponent with two weeks to prepare though. That, and New England had the benefit of watching the Jets shut down Miami’s offense last week.
THE PICK: New England (-10.5)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-14)
The Saints didn’t cover for the first time all year last week. The Falcons were able to move the ball, and do so on the ground with much success. We know that Carolina sucks, but they can definitely run the ball. They have the 7th best defense, and the top-ranked passing defense. If Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams get 20 carries each, the Panthers lose, but cover. If Jake Delhomme throws the ball 30 times, the Panthers lose and fail to cover. So what of it, John Fox? Are you a betting man or what?
THE PICK: Carolina (-14)
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-10)*
If Calvin Johnson plays, he’s going to get a least one long touchdown, maybe two. But no matter what, the Seahawks are still going to win by 10.
THE PICK: Seattle (-10)
San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants (-3)
7 TDs to the Saints (4 Passing, 3 Rushing). 3 TDs to the Cardinals (1 passing, 2 rushing). 5 TDs to the Eagles (3 passing, 2 rushing). That’s what the Giants have allowed over the course of their 3 game skid. I think best case scenario against the Chargers is something in the middle, and I don’t even think that’s going to be enough to win. Not unless Super-Crappy Eli Manning morphs back into Good Eli Manning. It’s not even going to be cold in East Rutherford this weekend. I foresee the losing skid extending to 4 in the Meadowlands.
THE PICK: San Diego (+3)
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
This is another game I wouldn’t bet. I like the Niners to bounce back at home, and think them winning by a touchdown sounds about right.
THE PICK: San Francisco (-5.5)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
All week I’ve heard about how this is where the Cowboys 3 game win streak comes to an end. I don’t necessarily disagree with that, but I’ve heard it so often, from so many “experts”, that I just can’t help but buck the mainstream and pick the dog.
THE PICK: Dallas (+3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Denver Broncos
Baltimore may have solved the Broncos riddle last week, and unfortunately for Kyle Orton & Co., the Steelers have the personnel to execute the same gameplan. Sorry Broncos fans, I still think you’re gonna make the playoffs (although history tells me otherwise).
THE PICK: Pittsburgh (-3)
Last Week: 6-7
Season: 60-54-2
3 Team Tease Record: 1-1
Week 8 NFL Picks
The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
You have every right to look self satisfied.
For years, I’ve hated Peyton Manning. For no particular reason, I was always a Tom Brady guy. But since the Super Bowl win Peyton seems to have risen to a level beyond what we’ve seen in the past. The difference isn’t in the numbers – truly, a huge part of QB stats is directly dependant on the quality of the offensive line’s pass protection and how good the receivers are at getting open. The difference this year for Peyton seems to be that he just doesn’t miss throws. I’ve seen a lot of Colts games this year (says more about the NFL’s hard-on for putting them on as the night game than my interest in them), and Peyton simply doesn’t miss his target. He doesn’t need the receiver to be open, he just needs them to come up with the ball.
Just last week, I watched Pierre Garçon run a skinny post in which the opposing safety had blanket coverage on him. Literally stride for stride, could not have been more covered unless he was hauling the safety around on his back like they were Master Blaster. Peyton slings it 40 yards anyway, and hits Garçon just over the safety’s outstretched arms. Garçon couldn’t make the catch (though the ball simply fell between his arms untouched by the safety), but it was an amazing throw nonetheless.
I realized then that my affection for athletes has little to do with who they play for or what the situation is, it’s simply a function of respect. Awesome in the regular season but can’t get it done in the playoffs? You stink. Do it year after year but fail to have the talent to get to the playoffs? Respect (Yeah, I’m talking about Drew Brees here).
So Peyton, after years of hating you for no particular reason other than your happy feet, and then only begrudgingly giving you the respect you deserve after your Super Bowl win (I mean, come on, you beat a Bears team with Rex effing Grossman at QB), I am now ready to respect your otherworldly football talents. When I’ve got to call my wife into the room to see a play (see: Larry Fitzgerald in the Super Bowl last year), I know you’re doing something special. Here’s to a Colts/Saints Super Bowl that could go down in history.
Oh, while we’re on the subject of great plays, let’s enjoy the one that got the most skip backs on my DVR last week:
Is there anything better than when a defender gets completely trucked? Ah, football. On to the picks! Remember to look for the * designating my three team tease for the week. 1-0 so far!
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Baltimore’s offense is good. Their defense is struggling – and it seems like it might be mostly a personnel issue. The Broncos are coming off a bye, which I like, their defense is playing at a high level (2nd in the league), which I like, and they have proven they can protect Kyle Orton. That’s too many likes to go with the Ravens.
THE PICK: Denver (+3.5)
Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills
I finally picked a Houston game correctly last week! I don’t love the Texans, particularly on the road, but Buffalo has been terrible. I don’t like that Andre Johnson looks like he’s going to miss this game, particularly because I bet it surprise you to learn that Buffalo has the 10th ranked pass defense. Weather calls for cold(ish) and clear, so we’re not going to be asking Matt Schaub for that much. Hey, look at that! I just talked myself into the Texans.
THE PICK: Houston (-3)
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears (-14)
Cleveland has the worst defense in the league and the second-worst offense, only besting Oakland. I’d like this a lot better if the line was 10 because I don’t trust the Bears at all, but I’m not betting on Cleveland, well, ever.
THE PICK: Chicago (-14)
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-11)
Walter Jones and Lofa Tatupu hit the IR this week. I was hoping that getting Big Walt back would give the ‘Hawks a shot in the arm. At this point, I’m ready to give the whole organization a shot to the head to put it out of its misery. Can’t we just pack up and start getting ready for next year so no one else gets hurt? Ugh. The Cowboys can be had, but I don’t think it happens this week.
THE PICK: Dallas (-11)
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-4)
Yuck. And if you think that’s a cop out because I don’t have anything interesting to say and don’t want to do any research, you’re right.
THE PICK: Detroit (-4)
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts (-12.5)*
If you read today’s introduction, you already know where I’m going. It looks like Reggie Wayne might not play this week and I don’t even care. The 49ers are a year away, the the Colts are the most under the radar undefeated team in the league.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-12.5)
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-4)
The Fins beat the Jets back in Week 5 on Monday night by 4 on a last second touchdown. The Jets defense has only gotten worse and Miami looks like they’re rounding into shape. A trouncing of the Raiders last week was certainly the medicine the Jets needed, but I don’t see them stopping the Dolphins’ ground game. In the words of Greg Roberts, they got the wrong team favored.
THE PICK: Miami (+4)
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)*
The Eagles looked just flat out horrendous against Oakland and then came out of the bye and allowed 17 points to the woefully inept Redskins, losing their best player (Brian Westbrook) in the process. The Giants have had a tough couple of weeks but the Eagles’ OL looks to be a serious problem. I bet we see Kevin Kolb by the third quarter.
THE PICK: NY Giants (+3)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3)
Is this the first time in history an 0-6 team has been the favorite? Did you know the Titans were 3 point favorites over the Jags in Week 4 and lost by 20? At home? Have they suddenly gotten better? All they added during the bye week was a quarterback controversy. I liked Jeff Fisher’s quote from today – “I’m in [Kerry] Collins’ corner because I don’t think our record is a reflection of our quarterback play. As far as the future is concerned, I’m not one of those coaches that’s going to have musical chairs at the quarterback position”. Jeff, I like you and everything, but you’re totally missing the point. The season is over. Even if you win out, your chances at a wild card are slim. Just put Vince in and see what happens already.
THE PICK: Jacksonville (+3)
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-17)
Oakland gets up for San Diego. The Raiders defense is pretty good, and the Chargers have looked pretty crappy pretty much all season. This line is pretty ridiculous. I like the Chargers to win, but Oakland to cover.
THE PICK: Oakland (-17)
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3)
The Brett Favre bowl is finally here! And yes, I know these teams played in Week 4 but that wasn’t at Lambeau. I have no doubt Mr. Rodgers can throw right along with the old man, but Ryan Grant is no Adrian Peterson.
THE PICK: Minnesota (+3)
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9)
For weeks I’ve been touting the theory that Arizona sucks. While they might till be wildly inconsistent, they definitely don’t suck. They beat the Giants on the road last week, and I did not see that coming. I think they beat a woeful Carolina team by two TDs.
THE PICK: Arizona (-9)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-10)*
I typed that asterisk before writing this paragraph then hesitated. The Falcons are a quality opponent, and we saw the Saints have some trouble last week with Miami…hmmm. Well, Steve Spagnuolo Tony Sparano did a great job disrupting the Saints offense early on last week, and it almost worked until the Dolphins defense tired toward the end. I still like the Falcons this year, but let’s take a look at the Saints record against the spread this season:
Wk1: (-13) v. Lions – Win by 18
Wk2: (-1) @ Eagles – Win by 26
Wk3: (-6) @ Buffalo – Win by 20
Wk4: (-7) v. Jets – Win by 14
Wk5: bye
Wk6: (-3) v. Giants – Win by 21
Wk7: (-7) @ Miami – Win by 12
The Lesson? I think so far, the lesson is don’t bet against the Saints.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-10)
Week 7: 7-5-1
Season: 54-47-2
3 Team Tease Record: 1-0 (Started in Week 7)
Week 7 NFL Picks
The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
Yeah, I don't know either.
You know, every week I search for a cheerleader picture that meets one or more of three criteria:
- Hot
- Pertinent to my column angle
- Inspires some kind of joke
And inevitably, as I poke through all the available files, more often than not the pictures that catch my eye are those of the Redskins cheer squad. They are by far the squad most often captured in compromising positions, doing things that would make your slutty friend’s facebook page look tame. So I don’t know what the deal is in Washington, whether you have an extra racy cheer squad, a particularly pervy camera guy or what, but at least all you ‘Skins fans have something else to look at while suffering through another embarrassing football performance at RFK.
Today’s picture is simply a symbol of my futility of late. Clearly I don’t know what I’m talking about. Perhaps I’m not putting in the requisite amount of research required like I was earlier in the season. Perhaps I’m emotionally drained from two subpar weeks in a row. Perhaps I’m too busy trying to get another project off the ground (which, if successful, will house these picks pieces as well). Or perhaps it’s just things like Pittsburgh (-14) winning by 13, Minnesota (-3) winning by 2, the Eagles…what’s that? I picked Seattle and they lost by 24? Oh, right. Well, I must be due for a run then. Let’s do it.
Oh, I almost forgot! I’m going to start adding a asterisk on 3 games that I would bet as a teaser. That way, you can lose more money all at once!
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans (-3)
Last week I even said Cincy was due for a letdown and still picked against the Texans, so I don’t even listen to my own advice. Frank Gore returns for the Niners this week, but they are traveling 2 hours east for the early game, so this one will kick off at 11 AM Niner-body-clock time. I wouldn’t gamble on this game with someone else’s money, but I’ve got to pick someone, and if Houston’s pass blocking holds up, I think they win this game (Let the record reflect that I am 1-5 picking Texans’ games this year, and the only win was the cover against Oakland. Yeeesh.).
THE PICK: Houston (-3)
San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers might be 2-3, but they didn’t look terrible on Monday against the Broncos, minus the special teams of course. Perhaps if Kansas City still had Dante Hall I’d be worried.
THE PICK: San Diego (-4.5)
Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams
This is nice. I like it when you take a great offensive team and bring them into a dome against an abjectly terrible host.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-13)*
New England Patriots (-15) “@” Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The “@” is in parentheses because this game is in London. One of these teams is a well-coached, impeccably run organization. The other is O-fer on the year and has a rookie head coach who routinely gives his players backhanded compliments because he’s too foolish to shut his mouth. Who do you think is going to deal with the weird circumstances better?
THE PICK: New England (-15)
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
One of the first things I do when a dome team is traveling is look at the weather report. Particularly in the case of the Vikings and Old Man Favre and his speedy receivers, being inside is a huge advantage. Heinz Field is a notoriously nasty surface, and it is raining now, but it’s projected to be 60 degrees and sunny on Sunday. I like the Vikings here.
THE PICK: Minnesota (+3.5)
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns
I think this is the game where the Packers turn the corner. They’re getting healthy and this is their second cupcake in a row.
THE PICK: Green Bay (-7.5)*
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
Mark Sanchez threw 5 picks against the Bills last week. They allowed more than 300 yards rushing to the Jets. The Bills still needed OT to win. Do you think Carolina’s tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams is better than Thomas Jones and Leon Washington? Maybe not, but they are at least on par. Put it this way: Carolina was good last year, and they are capable of moving the ball. Buffalo was not and is not.
THE PICK: Carolina (-7.5)
New York Jets (-6) @ Oakland Raiders
Yikes. After the Sanchez bed-shitting mentioned above I’m reticent to bet money on him again. But I’ll tell you what doesn’t matter: That the Raiders beat the Eagles last week. The Eagles are famous for pulling that crap, and they seemingly do it each and every year. Besides, I think Rex Ryan goes into Flacco mode and leans on his backs to get this W in the books.
THE PICK: NY Jets (-6)
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
The Bears have a quality rushing defense and Carson Palmer has not looked good. I hate picking the bears because I hate Jay Cutler’s face, but it’s the right thing to do.
THE PICK: Chicago (+1)
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Why can’t I buy into the fact that Dallas just isn’t very good? Is it my continued hope that Tony Romo can bounce back and rescue more than one of my fantasy teams? Is it the uniforms? The stadium? The memory of the 2007 Cowboys/Patriots game that has to rank up there in all-time entertainment value? Atlanta is the better team, right? Particularly if Roddy White’s awoken from his early season coma, right? RIGHT?!
THE PICK: Atlanta (+3)
New Orleans (-7) @ Miami Dolphins
This game looks fun. Miami’s been playing well and the spread seems to invite the underdog pick. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they still have a rookie QB, lost early to teams like the Falcons and the Chargers, and barely beat the Jets. New Orleans is awesome, and for the first team this season has a clean injury report. Drew Brees will not allow the Saints to lose this game.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-7)*
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7)
I hate this game. There’s just something about the Giants that I’m still not sold on. Win this one by 14 and we’ll talk.
THE PICK: NY Giants (-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins
Philly may have laid an egg last week, but I have a gambling rule: Always bet against a team that pseudo fires their coach via public neutering and chooses an old man who’s been out of the league for years and has 6 days to prepare to call their plays. I mean, it’s just common sense. Good rule, though.
THE PICK: Philadelphia (-7)
Week 6: 6-8
Season: 47-42-1
Week 6 NFL Picks
The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
Yes, leave the covering to the football team.
I spent last week being all cutesy with the picks column and you know where it got me? 4-9-1. Good god, that’s horrendous. I have no excuses, but I’m tempted to point out that there were 4 games where teams should have covered and didn’t, but that’s gambling (oh, and I guess I just went ahead and pointed it out). I’m still up for the season but last week was disheartening to say the least.
An interesting thing about Week 6: Only two road favorites. Every other week has featured at least 5 road favorites. What does that mean, you ask? I have no idea, other than it just feels easier to bet a home team to cover. I can hear the siren’s song! I do see another underachieving week coming my way! There’s no two ways about it, I’m shook after last week. Let’s stop dicking around and get to the football.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-5)
Cincy is legit. They are due for a letdown but the Texans only play well against crappy defenses, and the Bengals don’t qualify.
THE PICK: Cincinnati (-5)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5)
Detroit is 1-3 against the spread this year, and only covered against a Redskins team that has proven to be terrible. My gut likes the points here, but that’s only because Green Bay has some serious offensive line issues. The injury report doesn’t reflect that coming off the bye week while the Lions looks to be missing their QB and WR1 with Megatron clearly in need of some energon cubes (yes, that was really really nerdy).
THE PICK: Green Bay (–13.5)
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-10)
How bad are the Rams that the Jags could possibly be giving 10 coming off a 41-0 humiliation in Seattle? Bad enough to make me take Jacksonville. Ugh. I feel sick.
THE PICK: Jacksonville (-10)
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The Ravens have had it rough the last few weeks, playing a couple of tough road games and falling to 3-2. After week 3, I was ready to crown them, but I, along with everyone else, have started to see some of the fatal flaws in their defense. One would assume they stack the box to stop Adrian Peterson and ask Old Man Favre to win the game for the Vikings. I’m guessing Favre is good for two picks this week, but I have a good feeling about the Vikes. If you need more convincing, it might help if I told you that the Ravens 3 wins came against opponents with a combined record of 3-11.
THE PICK: Minnesota (-3)
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
The Giants are the class of the league? Really? They’ve played one team with a winning record all season (and it was the Cowboys), the combined record of their opponents is 6-19, and if you take the Cowboys out their opponents’ record drops to 3-17. They haven’t beaten anybody! Not that I’m not excited about this game, but it seems like I’ve heard a whole lot about the Giants going into New Orleans to cement their place at the top of the league and I’m not buying it. The Saints are coming off a bye, and they may not be world beaters either (combined opponents’ record: 8-11), I have a hard time seeing them coming out and losing at home.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-3)
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
Derek Anderson is still the Browns QB. Troy Polamalu is back this week. Put this one in your teaser.
THE PICK: Pittsburgh (-14)
Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ll say this for Josh Johnson – he’s at least fun to watch. He might not be good, and I don’t care how badly you’re losing I don’t think you should be calling 50 passes (yes, 50!) with a rookie QB. Meanwhile, Carolina seems like there might be a decent football team buried under all the ineptitude. There’s nothing to say about this game other than I hope I don’t have to see it.
THE PICK: Carolina (-3)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins (-6)
The Chiefs get their first win!
THE PICK: Kansas City (+6)
Philadelphia Eagles (-14) @ Oakland Raiders
Too many weapons against a team that clearly doesn’t give a shit.
THE PICK: Philadelphia (-14)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Lots of talk this week about how different the Seahawks are with Matt Hasselbeck at QB. While that may not be an incorrect statement, two shutout wins against the Rams and the Jags are not something to get that excited about. I’m sticking with my “Arizona sucks” theme though.
THE PICK: Seattle (-3)
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-9.5)
Hey Pats fans! Check this out:
Other than the fact that Tom makes less mistakes (and really, just less completely gawd-awful throws), that’s pretty similar, right? That’s some depressing shit, particularly if you drafted Brady high in fantasy. In real life, the Titans have been terrible. However, I’m hardly convinced the Patriots are capable of covering this nearly double-digit spread. The Pats are 2-2-1 against the spread this season, losing close games to Denver and the Jets, and barely beating Buffalo in Week 1. If Kerry Collins wasn’t getting worse as Tom Brady slowly gets better, I’d pick the Titans to cover. But with the chance of a Vince Young sighting, I’ve got to think the Patriots get it done at home.
THE PICK: New England (-9.5)
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
I’m not gonna lie to you. I have no idea what’s going to happen here. Chicago is as schizophrenic as Houston, Arizona, and Dallas. I’m going to call that non-conference game the Falcons played in New England an anomaly and assume that I’m right about the Falcons just being the better team here.
THE PICK: Atlanta (-3.5)
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
It’s going to be hard for the Broncos to win six in a row against a Chargers team coming off a bye that really needs this W. I like the Broncos in this game, but not enough to take the three points.
THE PICK: San Diego (-3)
Week 5: 4-9-1
Season: 41-34-1
