Tonight’s game only is below. The rest of the Week 10 picks will be have been delivered hot and fresh tomorrow just a scroll away.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)
These teams are remarkable similar, except in their strengths. Both have massive questions on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. Both are underachieving and looking like they have no shot to make the playoffs. But the 49ers have something important the Bears lack, something that’s particularly important when two crappy teams face off: a running game. Sure, the Bears have Jay Cutler at QB, and no matter how hard you want to try and sell me on the “resurrection” of Alex Smith, he’s still not Jay Cutler. But while Cutler is probably good for 2-3 TD passes, he’s probably also good for at least one backbreaking pick. I say between that and Frank Gore, the Niners get a W.
THE PICK: San Francisco (-3)
–Friday Update–
I haven’t had occasion this season to feature the 49ers cheerleaders, or the “Gold Rush” to those in the know. After spending a few minutes skimming through pictures, I do declare that I have been missing out. Perhaps I would have known that after last night, but what the hell is up with the NFL Network’s HD? It’s on an HD channel, my TV is connected with an HDMI cable, there’s a little “NFL HD” logo in the upper right corner, but I can say with unequivocal certainty that the game last night was not in HD. The picture was nearly as bad as Fox Sports’ “HD” coverage, a service my cronies and I have taken to calling “Ah-chay Day” as if it were the Mexican equivalent of HD.
Lies!
Get it together, NFLN. I have to pay extra already to get your stupid channel, I’d rather it not look like everyone was covered in a fine layer of digital hair. Perhaps I’m spoiled, but I’ve been watching sports in HD long enough now that I’ve forgotten what it’s like to see a game that looks like shit (and this is coming from a guy who has watched a World Series in a parking lot with rabbit ears – “Is that the ball?! I don’t know. Did he catch it?! Who? Which team is that?!”). I’m willing to deal with it begrudgingly when I’ve got no other choice, but when I kick back with a beer in the comfort of my own home to enjoy the NFL on a weekday evening (which I love), I want the best picture possible, and right now, NFLN is not delivering.
Nice to start the week off on a high note with a 49ers cover, let’s see what the rest of the weekend has in store.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers
Both these teams can run the ball, and each are facing the 24th and 23rd ranked run defense, respectively. So if we call that a wash, we’ve got to look at the passing game. Matt Ryan has been pretty terrible the last few weeks, but Jake Delhomme was abjectly horrendous for weeks prior. I think this is a winnable game for Carolina, but I also think the Falcons might still be a playoff team, and if I’m right about that, then they have to win here.
THE PICK: Atlanta (-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-10)
What the hell was the deal last week with Green Bay? Are they that cooked? It’s not like Tampa looked good, Green Bay just couldn’t do anything. I’ve been vascillating on my opinion of Miami week to week, but other than the Ted Ginn game against the Jets, they have looked pretty effective, and they’ve lost some heartbreakers to good teams. It’s not that I don’t think Miami is going to win, but I don’t like laying 10, I don’t like it at all.
THE PICK: Miami (-10)
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-15.5)*
Let me put it this way. In a fantasy league, I am starting both Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin.
THE PICK: Minnesota (-15.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-7.5)
Lots of talk this week about how it feels like the Jags are something like 2-6, despite the fact that both of these teams are 4-4. The Jags, however, are 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road, and can’t cover to save their lives. Their 3 home wins? A drubbing of Tennessee in Week 4, followed by 3 point wins over St. Louis and Kansas City. That is really really gross. Meanwhile their average margin of defeat on the road is 20 (by 2 to Indy, by 41 (!) to Seattle, and then by 17 to Tennessee). I originally liked the Jags to cover here because I hardly believe in the Jets, but the more I look at what Jax has done this year, the more I expect them to get rolled.
THE PICK: NY Jets (-7.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Do you believe that the Steelers lost to the Bears in week 2? That’s not relevant, I just wanted to point it out because it’s shameful and I hate the Steelers. I’m coming around on the Bengals, particularly after the season sweep of Baltimore. But, looking at Cincy’s schedule, they really haven’t been tested on the road (@GB, @CLE, @BAL). I don’t necessarily think the Bengals are going to win, but I like them to keep it close.
THE PICK: Cincinnati (+7.5)
New Orleans Saints (-14) @ St. Louis Rams*
Two weeks in a row that the Saints have failed to cover. Of course, that was a money maker for me last week, so who am I to complain. Look, Steven Jackson is going to get his yards, but St. Louis is terrible. Watch one of their games if you haven’t yet. Everybody but Jackson has a look on their face like they can’t wait for the season to end. When their down by 4 TDs in the 4th Quarter of this one, that look might become so prevalent on their sideline that your TV will start to emit an actual stench.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-14)
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Only two teams in the league would have their starting QB come off injury and not have a single fan excited for the boost that should give the team. As long as Vince Young has Chris Johnson, the Titans should continue to beat up on the bad teams left on their schedule.
THE PICK: Tennessee (-6.5)
Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins*
How bad have the Broncos looked in their two losses? They haven’t been able to do anything, and I mean anything at all, on offense. They don’t really have much of a run game and if Kyle Orton can’t check down, the Broncos offense sputters. The Redskins, though, are missing Chris Cooley, Clinton Portis, and now Ladell Betts has an ankle issue. If Roc Alexander is getting carries, you know the team is in trouble.
THE PICK: Denver (-4.5)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-1)
So, Kansas City has only won one game and the Raiders two? This game is horrible. What I do know is that over the course of the season when picking games, barring that Eagles fiasco, I’ve felt good picking the Raider games. What I haven’t felt good about and have struggled with is KC, which seems like they are capable of more week to week. What does that mean? I have no idea.
THE PICK: Kansas City (+1)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-9)
As I started to break down this game into strengths and weaknesses, I realized that the Seahawks are just a crappier version of Arizona. Questionable run game, huge issues in the defensive secondary, decent pass rush, awesome downfield passing game. Wait, that last one is just Arizona. Barring some kind of turnover mess, the Cardinals should win this one going away.
THE PICK: Arizona (-9)
Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has become a team that you don’t want to have money involved with, and I mean that both betting with and against them. They’re clearly talented, but their offensive line issues are too problematic to expect any consistency week to week. Unfortunately, teams like this sometimes have games where things go their way. Stay away from the Pack until something changes.
THE PICK: Dallas (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
Norv Turner vs. Andy Reid. Which team is going to have a late game clock-management gaffe in this one? After that debacle last week, I just can’t take the Eagles, particularly on the road. Let us not forget that the last time they visited the West Coast, they pooped their pants against Oakland. San Diego came through for me against the Giants, I’m sticking with them.
THE PICK: San Diego (-3)
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
I feel like the Pats are going to win this game. The Colts defensive issues scare me, particularly since it seems that Tom Brady continues to improve each week. That said, can you bet against Peyton Manning in a game like this one? I don’t know. Don’t put money on this one unless you want to be crying into your beer at the end of the night.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (-12)
I’m still not betting on Cleveland. Ever. At this point they should just get Josh Cribbs the ball on every play. It will be better than than anything else they’ve done all season.
THE PICK: Baltimore (-12)
Week 9: 8-4
Season: 69-58-2
3 Team Tease: 1-2
This is for you Ted Thompson! No, to kiss! No, not like that! Get away from me!
Did the NFL even happen last week? Other than the Monday night game with everyone and their brother leaping 4 feet off the ground to make some amazing catch and one of the most awful no-chance-to-win-but-going-to-ruin-your-bet-anyway field goals in recent history, I can’t remember another exciting moment from the NFL in Week 8. What’s that you say? A “Brett Favre” returned to Green Bay in a Vikings uniform and beat his old team? All the major sports news outlets were awash in coverage? The network had a special “Favre-Cam” that focused on Favre the whole game? Even when he was picking his nose on the sidelines? Fantastic!
Perhaps I just blocked the whole goddamn thing out.
But while we’re unfortunately spending time talking about Brett Favre, what are the odds that now that he’s exacted his revenge on Ted Thompson that he just mails in the rest of the season? Is there a chance that it was enough to beat the Packers at Lambeau or does he need a division title, maybe even another trophy? Brett, can you let us know how motivated you are? I’d like to potentially trade for you in fantasy but need to know you’re not going to start slinging ill advised picks next week.
Enough about the Vikings, they aren’t even playing in Week 9. Who do we care about this week?
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-10)
What’s left to say about Washington? The team just can’t execute. Everyone looks pissed off, and no one wants to play together. I thought the Falcons showed some heart on Monday night, it just didn’t go their way. I don’t like the 10 points here but I dislike the Redskins more.
THE PICK: Atlanta (-10)
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears (-3)
First of all, I hate this game and wouldn’t bet a dime on it. But since I have to pick someone, I’m going to say Arizona bounces back with a nice game against an overrated Chicago defense.
THE PICK: Arizona (+3)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Baltimore team that won last weekend looked a lot more like the machine that got off to a 3-0 start. They either figured something out in the secondary last week or it’s just true that Kyle Orton can’t throw the long ball. Part of me thinks Josh McDaniels’ West Coast hybrid offense just ran into a bad matchup. Ed Reed sat on the short routes, blitzed off the corner, and generally caused havoc and never once did Denver burn the Ravens deep. I think the Bengals go to work with a more aggressive passing game complimented by some hard running from CedBen (No? That doesn’t work? Damn.).
THE PICK: Cincinnati (-3)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-9)*
All of a sudden Colts defenders are dropping all over the place like old people during a heat wave. Shades of the 2006 Colts. What that means? It means that the Colts are going to win, but I don’t expect them to cover. Oh, and if you’re as fed up with Steve Slaton as I am, he suddenly became a worthy flex play even though you want to teach him a lesson and bench his ass just like Gary Kubiak did.
THE PICK: Houston (+9)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
The main story on ESPN.com for much of yesterday centered around the viability of the NFL in Jacksonville. The Jags blackout woes continue, which is ironic because at home is the only time you want to see this team. Let’s look at their season so far:
Week 4: Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville – WIN by 20
Week 5: Jacksonville @ Seattle (PK) – LOSE by 41
Week 6: St. Louis @ Jacksonville (-10) – WIN by 3
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-3) – LOSE by 17
The season didn’t start this way of course, the Jags gave the Colts a battle in Week 1 on the road, got smoked at home by the Cardinals in Week 2, then beat the Texans on the road in Week 3, but if I put that in my little list there, it wouldn’t support my argument, which is that the Chiefs are terrible and traveling east, and the Jags are better at home. Not that much better, but we’re playing the odds here.
THE PICK: Jacksonville (-6.5)
Green Bay Packers (-10.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
The Battle of the Bays! What’s with the teams in Tampa constantly named after the body of water rather than the city? I’ve always been told it’s because the area is Tampa Bay and includes St. Petersburg as well, and they wouldn’t want to alienate the people from St. Pete by only referring to the teams as being in “Tampa” (the Rays stadium is actually in St. Pete for what it’s worth). Are people in St. Petersburg fooled by this? “Oh, I feel included because you sais the team is from Tampa Bay, and that includes me!” Why not pull a Minneapolis/St.Paul deal and call yourself the Florida Buccaneers? Or better yet, the Florida Gemelos? Anyway, I don’t like hearing about Aaron Rodgers double foot-itis, but Tampa Bay is 29th in the league in sacks with 11 all season, so I’ll not worry myself about that.
THE PICK: Green Bay (-10.5)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-10.5)
I have no idea. The Pats are coming off a bye, but I still don’t like this spread. I don’t know why Miami keeps sucking me in, but they made me money last week. Can’t go against Belichick versus a division opponent with two weeks to prepare though. That, and New England had the benefit of watching the Jets shut down Miami’s offense last week.
THE PICK: New England (-10.5)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-14)
The Saints didn’t cover for the first time all year last week. The Falcons were able to move the ball, and do so on the ground with much success. We know that Carolina sucks, but they can definitely run the ball. They have the 7th best defense, and the top-ranked passing defense. If Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams get 20 carries each, the Panthers lose, but cover. If Jake Delhomme throws the ball 30 times, the Panthers lose and fail to cover. So what of it, John Fox? Are you a betting man or what?
THE PICK: Carolina (-14)
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-10)*
If Calvin Johnson plays, he’s going to get a least one long touchdown, maybe two. But no matter what, the Seahawks are still going to win by 10.
THE PICK: Seattle (-10)
San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants (-3)
7 TDs to the Saints (4 Passing, 3 Rushing). 3 TDs to the Cardinals (1 passing, 2 rushing). 5 TDs to the Eagles (3 passing, 2 rushing). That’s what the Giants have allowed over the course of their 3 game skid. I think best case scenario against the Chargers is something in the middle, and I don’t even think that’s going to be enough to win. Not unless Super-Crappy Eli Manning morphs back into Good Eli Manning. It’s not even going to be cold in East Rutherford this weekend. I foresee the losing skid extending to 4 in the Meadowlands.
THE PICK: San Diego (+3)
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
This is another game I wouldn’t bet. I like the Niners to bounce back at home, and think them winning by a touchdown sounds about right.
THE PICK: San Francisco (-5.5)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
All week I’ve heard about how this is where the Cowboys 3 game win streak comes to an end. I don’t necessarily disagree with that, but I’ve heard it so often, from so many “experts”, that I just can’t help but buck the mainstream and pick the dog.
THE PICK: Dallas (+3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Denver Broncos
Baltimore may have solved the Broncos riddle last week, and unfortunately for Kyle Orton & Co., the Steelers have the personnel to execute the same gameplan. Sorry Broncos fans, I still think you’re gonna make the playoffs (although history tells me otherwise).
THE PICK: Pittsburgh (-3)
Last Week: 6-7
Season: 60-54-2
3 Team Tease Record: 1-1
The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
You have every right to look self satisfied.
For years, I’ve hated Peyton Manning. For no particular reason, I was always a Tom Brady guy. But since the Super Bowl win Peyton seems to have risen to a level beyond what we’ve seen in the past. The difference isn’t in the numbers – truly, a huge part of QB stats is directly dependant on the quality of the offensive line’s pass protection and how good the receivers are at getting open. The difference this year for Peyton seems to be that he just doesn’t miss throws. I’ve seen a lot of Colts games this year (says more about the NFL’s hard-on for putting them on as the night game than my interest in them), and Peyton simply doesn’t miss his target. He doesn’t need the receiver to be open, he just needs them to come up with the ball.
Just last week, I watched Pierre Garçon run a skinny post in which the opposing safety had blanket coverage on him. Literally stride for stride, could not have been more covered unless he was hauling the safety around on his back like they were Master Blaster. Peyton slings it 40 yards anyway, and hits Garçon just over the safety’s outstretched arms. Garçon couldn’t make the catch (though the ball simply fell between his arms untouched by the safety), but it was an amazing throw nonetheless.
I realized then that my affection for athletes has little to do with who they play for or what the situation is, it’s simply a function of respect. Awesome in the regular season but can’t get it done in the playoffs? You stink. Do it year after year but fail to have the talent to get to the playoffs? Respect (Yeah, I’m talking about Drew Brees here).
So Peyton, after years of hating you for no particular reason other than your happy feet, and then only begrudgingly giving you the respect you deserve after your Super Bowl win (I mean, come on, you beat a Bears team with Rex effing Grossman at QB), I am now ready to respect your otherworldly football talents. When I’ve got to call my wife into the room to see a play (see: Larry Fitzgerald in the Super Bowl last year), I know you’re doing something special. Here’s to a Colts/Saints Super Bowl that could go down in history.
Oh, while we’re on the subject of great plays, let’s enjoy the one that got the most skip backs on my DVR last week:
Is there anything better than when a defender gets completely trucked? Ah, football. On to the picks! Remember to look for the * designating my three team tease for the week. 1-0 so far!
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Baltimore’s offense is good. Their defense is struggling – and it seems like it might be mostly a personnel issue. The Broncos are coming off a bye, which I like, their defense is playing at a high level (2nd in the league), which I like, and they have proven they can protect Kyle Orton. That’s too many likes to go with the Ravens.
THE PICK: Denver (+3.5)
Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills
I finally picked a Houston game correctly last week! I don’t love the Texans, particularly on the road, but Buffalo has been terrible. I don’t like that Andre Johnson looks like he’s going to miss this game, particularly because I bet it surprise you to learn that Buffalo has the 10th ranked pass defense. Weather calls for cold(ish) and clear, so we’re not going to be asking Matt Schaub for that much. Hey, look at that! I just talked myself into the Texans.
THE PICK: Houston (-3)
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears (-14)
Cleveland has the worst defense in the league and the second-worst offense, only besting Oakland. I’d like this a lot better if the line was 10 because I don’t trust the Bears at all, but I’m not betting on Cleveland, well, ever.
THE PICK: Chicago (-14)
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-11)
Walter Jones and Lofa Tatupu hit the IR this week. I was hoping that getting Big Walt back would give the ‘Hawks a shot in the arm. At this point, I’m ready to give the whole organization a shot to the head to put it out of its misery. Can’t we just pack up and start getting ready for next year so no one else gets hurt? Ugh. The Cowboys can be had, but I don’t think it happens this week.
THE PICK: Dallas (-11)
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-4)
Yuck. And if you think that’s a cop out because I don’t have anything interesting to say and don’t want to do any research, you’re right.
THE PICK: Detroit (-4)
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts (-12.5)*
If you read today’s introduction, you already know where I’m going. It looks like Reggie Wayne might not play this week and I don’t even care. The 49ers are a year away, the the Colts are the most under the radar undefeated team in the league.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-12.5)
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-4)
The Fins beat the Jets back in Week 5 on Monday night by 4 on a last second touchdown. The Jets defense has only gotten worse and Miami looks like they’re rounding into shape. A trouncing of the Raiders last week was certainly the medicine the Jets needed, but I don’t see them stopping the Dolphins’ ground game. In the words of Greg Roberts, they got the wrong team favored.
THE PICK: Miami (+4)
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)*
The Eagles looked just flat out horrendous against Oakland and then came out of the bye and allowed 17 points to the woefully inept Redskins, losing their best player (Brian Westbrook) in the process. The Giants have had a tough couple of weeks but the Eagles’ OL looks to be a serious problem. I bet we see Kevin Kolb by the third quarter.
THE PICK: NY Giants (+3)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3)
Is this the first time in history an 0-6 team has been the favorite? Did you know the Titans were 3 point favorites over the Jags in Week 4 and lost by 20? At home? Have they suddenly gotten better? All they added during the bye week was a quarterback controversy. I liked Jeff Fisher’s quote from today – “I’m in [Kerry] Collins’ corner because I don’t think our record is a reflection of our quarterback play. As far as the future is concerned, I’m not one of those coaches that’s going to have musical chairs at the quarterback position”. Jeff, I like you and everything, but you’re totally missing the point. The season is over. Even if you win out, your chances at a wild card are slim. Just put Vince in and see what happens already.
THE PICK: Jacksonville (+3)
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-17)
Oakland gets up for San Diego. The Raiders defense is pretty good, and the Chargers have looked pretty crappy pretty much all season. This line is pretty ridiculous. I like the Chargers to win, but Oakland to cover.
THE PICK: Oakland (-17)
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3)
The Brett Favre bowl is finally here! And yes, I know these teams played in Week 4 but that wasn’t at Lambeau. I have no doubt Mr. Rodgers can throw right along with the old man, but Ryan Grant is no Adrian Peterson.
THE PICK: Minnesota (+3)
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9)
For weeks I’ve been touting the theory that Arizona sucks. While they might till be wildly inconsistent, they definitely don’t suck. They beat the Giants on the road last week, and I did not see that coming. I think they beat a woeful Carolina team by two TDs.
THE PICK: Arizona (-9)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-10)*
I typed that asterisk before writing this paragraph then hesitated. The Falcons are a quality opponent, and we saw the Saints have some trouble last week with Miami…hmmm. Well, Steve Spagnuolo Tony Sparano did a great job disrupting the Saints offense early on last week, and it almost worked until the Dolphins defense tired toward the end. I still like the Falcons this year, but let’s take a look at the Saints record against the spread this season:
Wk1: (-13) v. Lions – Win by 18
Wk2: (-1) @ Eagles – Win by 26
Wk3: (-6) @ Buffalo – Win by 20
Wk4: (-7) v. Jets – Win by 14
Wk5: bye
Wk6: (-3) v. Giants – Win by 21
Wk7: (-7) @ Miami – Win by 12
The Lesson? I think so far, the lesson is don’t bet against the Saints.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-10)
Week 7: 7-5-1
Season: 54-47-2
3 Team Tease Record: 1-0 (Started in Week 7)
The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
Yeah, I don't know either.
You know, every week I search for a cheerleader picture that meets one or more of three criteria:
- Hot
- Pertinent to my column angle
- Inspires some kind of joke
And inevitably, as I poke through all the available files, more often than not the pictures that catch my eye are those of the Redskins cheer squad. They are by far the squad most often captured in compromising positions, doing things that would make your slutty friend’s facebook page look tame. So I don’t know what the deal is in Washington, whether you have an extra racy cheer squad, a particularly pervy camera guy or what, but at least all you ‘Skins fans have something else to look at while suffering through another embarrassing football performance at RFK.
Today’s picture is simply a symbol of my futility of late. Clearly I don’t know what I’m talking about. Perhaps I’m not putting in the requisite amount of research required like I was earlier in the season. Perhaps I’m emotionally drained from two subpar weeks in a row. Perhaps I’m too busy trying to get another project off the ground (which, if successful, will house these picks pieces as well). Or perhaps it’s just things like Pittsburgh (-14) winning by 13, Minnesota (-3) winning by 2, the Eagles…what’s that? I picked Seattle and they lost by 24? Oh, right. Well, I must be due for a run then. Let’s do it.
Oh, I almost forgot! I’m going to start adding a asterisk on 3 games that I would bet as a teaser. That way, you can lose more money all at once!
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans (-3)
Last week I even said Cincy was due for a letdown and still picked against the Texans, so I don’t even listen to my own advice. Frank Gore returns for the Niners this week, but they are traveling 2 hours east for the early game, so this one will kick off at 11 AM Niner-body-clock time. I wouldn’t gamble on this game with someone else’s money, but I’ve got to pick someone, and if Houston’s pass blocking holds up, I think they win this game (Let the record reflect that I am 1-5 picking Texans’ games this year, and the only win was the cover against Oakland. Yeeesh.).
THE PICK: Houston (-3)
San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers might be 2-3, but they didn’t look terrible on Monday against the Broncos, minus the special teams of course. Perhaps if Kansas City still had Dante Hall I’d be worried.
THE PICK: San Diego (-4.5)
Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams
This is nice. I like it when you take a great offensive team and bring them into a dome against an abjectly terrible host.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-13)*
New England Patriots (-15) “@” Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The “@” is in parentheses because this game is in London. One of these teams is a well-coached, impeccably run organization. The other is O-fer on the year and has a rookie head coach who routinely gives his players backhanded compliments because he’s too foolish to shut his mouth. Who do you think is going to deal with the weird circumstances better?
THE PICK: New England (-15)
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
One of the first things I do when a dome team is traveling is look at the weather report. Particularly in the case of the Vikings and Old Man Favre and his speedy receivers, being inside is a huge advantage. Heinz Field is a notoriously nasty surface, and it is raining now, but it’s projected to be 60 degrees and sunny on Sunday. I like the Vikings here.
THE PICK: Minnesota (+3.5)
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns
I think this is the game where the Packers turn the corner. They’re getting healthy and this is their second cupcake in a row.
THE PICK: Green Bay (-7.5)*
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
Mark Sanchez threw 5 picks against the Bills last week. They allowed more than 300 yards rushing to the Jets. The Bills still needed OT to win. Do you think Carolina’s tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams is better than Thomas Jones and Leon Washington? Maybe not, but they are at least on par. Put it this way: Carolina was good last year, and they are capable of moving the ball. Buffalo was not and is not.
THE PICK: Carolina (-7.5)
New York Jets (-6) @ Oakland Raiders
Yikes. After the Sanchez bed-shitting mentioned above I’m reticent to bet money on him again. But I’ll tell you what doesn’t matter: That the Raiders beat the Eagles last week. The Eagles are famous for pulling that crap, and they seemingly do it each and every year. Besides, I think Rex Ryan goes into Flacco mode and leans on his backs to get this W in the books.
THE PICK: NY Jets (-6)
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
The Bears have a quality rushing defense and Carson Palmer has not looked good. I hate picking the bears because I hate Jay Cutler’s face, but it’s the right thing to do.
THE PICK: Chicago (+1)
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Why can’t I buy into the fact that Dallas just isn’t very good? Is it my continued hope that Tony Romo can bounce back and rescue more than one of my fantasy teams? Is it the uniforms? The stadium? The memory of the 2007 Cowboys/Patriots game that has to rank up there in all-time entertainment value? Atlanta is the better team, right? Particularly if Roddy White’s awoken from his early season coma, right? RIGHT?!
THE PICK: Atlanta (+3)
New Orleans (-7) @ Miami Dolphins
This game looks fun. Miami’s been playing well and the spread seems to invite the underdog pick. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they still have a rookie QB, lost early to teams like the Falcons and the Chargers, and barely beat the Jets. New Orleans is awesome, and for the first team this season has a clean injury report. Drew Brees will not allow the Saints to lose this game.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-7)*
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7)
I hate this game. There’s just something about the Giants that I’m still not sold on. Win this one by 14 and we’ll talk.
THE PICK: NY Giants (-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins
Philly may have laid an egg last week, but I have a gambling rule: Always bet against a team that pseudo fires their coach via public neutering and chooses an old man who’s been out of the league for years and has 6 days to prepare to call their plays. I mean, it’s just common sense. Good rule, though.
THE PICK: Philadelphia (-7)
Week 6: 6-8
Season: 47-42-1
The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
Yes, leave the covering to the football team.
I spent last week being all cutesy with the picks column and you know where it got me? 4-9-1. Good god, that’s horrendous. I have no excuses, but I’m tempted to point out that there were 4 games where teams should have covered and didn’t, but that’s gambling (oh, and I guess I just went ahead and pointed it out). I’m still up for the season but last week was disheartening to say the least.
An interesting thing about Week 6: Only two road favorites. Every other week has featured at least 5 road favorites. What does that mean, you ask? I have no idea, other than it just feels easier to bet a home team to cover. I can hear the siren’s song! I do see another underachieving week coming my way! There’s no two ways about it, I’m shook after last week. Let’s stop dicking around and get to the football.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-5)
Cincy is legit. They are due for a letdown but the Texans only play well against crappy defenses, and the Bengals don’t qualify.
THE PICK: Cincinnati (-5)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5)
Detroit is 1-3 against the spread this year, and only covered against a Redskins team that has proven to be terrible. My gut likes the points here, but that’s only because Green Bay has some serious offensive line issues. The injury report doesn’t reflect that coming off the bye week while the Lions looks to be missing their QB and WR1 with Megatron clearly in need of some energon cubes (yes, that was really really nerdy).
THE PICK: Green Bay (–13.5)
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-10)
How bad are the Rams that the Jags could possibly be giving 10 coming off a 41-0 humiliation in Seattle? Bad enough to make me take Jacksonville. Ugh. I feel sick.
THE PICK: Jacksonville (-10)
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The Ravens have had it rough the last few weeks, playing a couple of tough road games and falling to 3-2. After week 3, I was ready to crown them, but I, along with everyone else, have started to see some of the fatal flaws in their defense. One would assume they stack the box to stop Adrian Peterson and ask Old Man Favre to win the game for the Vikings. I’m guessing Favre is good for two picks this week, but I have a good feeling about the Vikes. If you need more convincing, it might help if I told you that the Ravens 3 wins came against opponents with a combined record of 3-11.
THE PICK: Minnesota (-3)
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
The Giants are the class of the league? Really? They’ve played one team with a winning record all season (and it was the Cowboys), the combined record of their opponents is 6-19, and if you take the Cowboys out their opponents’ record drops to 3-17. They haven’t beaten anybody! Not that I’m not excited about this game, but it seems like I’ve heard a whole lot about the Giants going into New Orleans to cement their place at the top of the league and I’m not buying it. The Saints are coming off a bye, and they may not be world beaters either (combined opponents’ record: 8-11), I have a hard time seeing them coming out and losing at home.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-3)
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
Derek Anderson is still the Browns QB. Troy Polamalu is back this week. Put this one in your teaser.
THE PICK: Pittsburgh (-14)
Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ll say this for Josh Johnson – he’s at least fun to watch. He might not be good, and I don’t care how badly you’re losing I don’t think you should be calling 50 passes (yes, 50!) with a rookie QB. Meanwhile, Carolina seems like there might be a decent football team buried under all the ineptitude. There’s nothing to say about this game other than I hope I don’t have to see it.
THE PICK: Carolina (-3)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins (-6)
The Chiefs get their first win!
THE PICK: Kansas City (+6)
Philadelphia Eagles (-14) @ Oakland Raiders
Too many weapons against a team that clearly doesn’t give a shit.
THE PICK: Philadelphia (-14)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Lots of talk this week about how different the Seahawks are with Matt Hasselbeck at QB. While that may not be an incorrect statement, two shutout wins against the Rams and the Jags are not something to get that excited about. I’m sticking with my “Arizona sucks” theme though.
THE PICK: Seattle (-3)
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-9.5)
Hey Pats fans! Check this out:
Other than the fact that Tom makes less mistakes (and really, just less completely gawd-awful throws), that’s pretty similar, right? That’s some depressing shit, particularly if you drafted Brady high in fantasy. In real life, the Titans have been terrible. However, I’m hardly convinced the Patriots are capable of covering this nearly double-digit spread. The Pats are 2-2-1 against the spread this season, losing close games to Denver and the Jets, and barely beating Buffalo in Week 1. If Kerry Collins wasn’t getting worse as Tom Brady slowly gets better, I’d pick the Titans to cover. But with the chance of a Vince Young sighting, I’ve got to think the Patriots get it done at home.
THE PICK: New England (-9.5)
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
I’m not gonna lie to you. I have no idea what’s going to happen here. Chicago is as schizophrenic as Houston, Arizona, and Dallas. I’m going to call that non-conference game the Falcons played in New England an anomaly and assume that I’m right about the Falcons just being the better team here.
THE PICK: Atlanta (-3.5)
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
It’s going to be hard for the Broncos to win six in a row against a Chargers team coming off a bye that really needs this W. I like the Broncos in this game, but not enough to take the three points.
THE PICK: San Diego (-3)
Week 5: 4-9-1
Season: 41-34-1
The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
The question of the Broncos being real or fake doesn't stop with the team.
Conventional wisdom says that we don’t really know anything about how the current NFL season is going to look until Week 4 is complete. It certainly seems like you can just chuck that out the window this week. Am I the only one that feels like things have not only not shaken out, but simply gotten more muddled and confusing? Add that to a weak slate of games this week (and honestly, I would rather watch the WNBA Finals than some of these terrible games – ok, that’s a lie) where two turds battle for supremacy of the dungpile and a bunch of double digit lines and frankly, I’m scared to even write down my predictions let alone get real money involved.
So with all that depressing football on the horizon, let’s talk for a moment about my current favorite thing on the internet: Black Dynamite! Since I was a young tyke, I’ve had an affinity for the blaxplotation genre, mostly because of Shaft and the associated Isaac Hayes music. This fall (one week from today, to be exact), Michael Jai White, whose name and face you probably know but you’ll be damned if you can figure out from where, is bringing back the Kung-Fu fightin’, jive-turkey huntin’, no-shit-takin’ anti-hero. Before we jump right to the trailer let’s have a quick refresher course on the star of Black Dynamite, courtesy of a Kill Bill deleted scene:
So, now you know Michael Jai White. But without further ado, shake the tree up from the roots and rake up the fruits:
All you suckas gather round, indeed. Despite all this excellent blacktion, the trailer isn’t even the best part. Oh no, the thing that put me over the edge of unbridled excitement is an internet classic. A Black Dynamite soundboard! Enjoy the next 10 minutes or so of throwback racial infused humor that will make you and your friends laugh and then feel the sting of White Guilt.
And if you think I showed you all that just to rip a page out of the Bill Simmons playbook to come up with a tenuous reason to use my favorite Black Dynamite soundboard quotes to preview this week’s games, then clearly you can dig it.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-9) — “Who the hell is interrupting my Kung Fu?!”
to a Ravens team that I thought was the class of the AFC (and may still be), but couldn’t get it done on the road last week against a suspect Pats D. I’m also not a fan of the 9 point spread, particularly when every single Bengals game this season has been decided by a score in the final minute. That said, the Bengals barely outlasted the truly putrid Browns and have a coach that was content to play for the tie. What the fuck? Content to play for the tie?! Why isn’t Marvin Lewis getting blasted for this? That alone is enough for me to pick Baltimore, but it’s important for them not to the let the upstart Bengals interrupt their Kung Fu, as it were.
THE PICK: Baltimore minus 9
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills (-6) — “If you were in charge, the people might as well surrender to whitey now. ‘Cause your survival skills ain’t worth a damn.”
to two coaches in Dick Jauron and Eric Mangini who may not even make it to their team’s bye week. Winning this game is like winning the spelling bee in special ed. Note that I didn’t use the classic “smartest kid in special ed” version of that joke, because the reality is that even winning this game won’t make either one of these guys the smartest retard, I’m pretty sure that title would have to be wrested from the grasp of Jim Zorn. Let’s hope for fantasy reasons Marshawn Lynch can get right against the 31st ranked Browns rushing D. Speaking of Zorn…
THE PICK: Buffalo minus the 6
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (-4) — “I will not hesitate to the lay the hammer down on any clown that comes around”
to Steve Smith (1.0) and DeAngelo Hall, who have long hated each other and tend to spend the bulk of these games jawing at each other. Now that DeAngelo Hall has been exposed as a fraud and Steve Smith has been rendered mostly irrelevant due to Jake Delhomme’s descent into the abyss, perhaps these two will get punchy for old times sake. Hell, that would be better than this game and the last Mayweather fight. After all, if the game above is the Special Ed spelling bee, than the winner of this game is the gold medalist at the Special Olympics. Speaking of Delhomme, he gets his own quote: “Tidy, get pimpin Jake out my trunk. Tell him the rest of my money be Wednesday or I’ll make him stick himself.”
THE PICK: Carolina minus the 4
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Detroit Lions — “I’d like to take the credit but dig mama, there’s no I in revolut…in team.”
Can you recall another athlete in recent memory who got the same kind of treatment from the media that Ben Roethlisberger does? This dude is notorious for being next to awful for the majority of games and then somehow manages to pull one Peyton Manning style strike out of his ass late in fourth quarter, only he doesn’t always pull it off. When he does, you’d think he won the game single handedly, and when he doesn’t, it’s generally someone else’s fault: the running game, the defense, Limas “Stone Hands” Sweed. The best thing you can say about Ben’s relationship with the media is that at least he’s not Brett Favre. In all seriousness, it’s the Steelers against a Lions team with injury questions at QB and a crappy defense.
THE PICK: Steelers minus 10.5
Dallas Cowboys (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs — “Breathe deeply, baby.”
to Tony Romo, who has been under fire since Week 2 as if the Cowboys struggles are all his fault. Tony needs to take a deep breath in the red zone and trust his arm, but he doesn’t play on Dallas’s bottom-fourth-of-the-league defense, it’s not his fault his receivers are a miasma of fecal stench, and he’s only thrown one pick in the two weeks since the awful three pick game against the Giants that set the media to grabbing his Will Smith white boy ears and giving him what for. I expect Tony to get back on track and Dallas to get the W, but not by 9.
THE PICK: Kansas City plus 9
Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants (-16) — “Black Dynamite, I wanna thank you for taking care of us girls while we was down and out and didn’t have no pimp”
For all the Raiders but JaMarcus Russell. I’m starting to have genuine sympathy for the Raiders (not for their fans of course, but for the actual players). Money aside, it would suck to achieve your dream of playing in the NFL only to get stuck with a terrible QB, an owner who is half dead and all senile, and a coach who makes a habit of punching assistants that disagree with him. The Raiders desperately need a new pimp.
THE PICK: New York Giants minus 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-15.5) — “I AM smiling.”
To Donovan McNabb, who seems to get hated on for smiling at the wrong times and not being a tough enough leader. Well, Eagles fans, I guess you get to find out for real this time when McRib takes the first tough shot to his tender midsection. Smiling? Or Grimacing? Luckily for you, it’s the the Bucs, who’ve been nothing short of horrendous all season.
THE PICK: Philadelphia minus 15.5
Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ St. Louis Rams — “Keep it tight and outta sight”
Hey Vikings, just win this going away and keep the damn Rams off of my TV, ya dig?
THE PICK: Minnesota minus 10
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) — “Yes, I would like some of that ass.”
To the only game on the schedule that looks like it might not only be entertaining but might tell us something important about both of these teams. On paper this appears to come down to defense, and San Fran has the distinct advantage. I look for the Niners to keep it on the ground and probably bury the Falcons’ running backs into the ground.
THE PICK: San Francisco minus 2.5
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) — “Come on you jive turkeys. What kind of run down is this?”
The only thing about this game that surprises me is that Vegas felt the need to install the Cards as near-touchdown favorites. It feels like the right line here to entice the most betting would be 3. These teams are both wildly schizophrenic. I’m taking Houston simply because Matt Schaub’s been on a roll, the Cards pass defense can be had (pick on The Gambler, AKA, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and Mario Williams is going to break Kurt Warner’s pelvis.
THE PICK: Houston and the 5.5
New England Patriots (-3) @ Denver Broncos — “Stick with me baby. I’ll have you farting through silk.
To both Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels, former life partners who went their separate ways when Tom decided to settle down with his beard. Brady’s skittishness had the Pats fans in a tizzy to start the season, and although he still looks a bit fearful, you have to believe he’s going to get into a groove here soon. McDaniels may have been doing it with smoke and mirrors – remeber, the 4-0 Broncos have beaten the Bengals (on a miracle play), the Browns, the Raiders, and a crappy Cowboys team. On the other hand, the Broncos beat the two abjectly terrible teams in that list by 20, so they’re not all fluff. I just have a feeling the Pats get it done this week, and if they win, they’re going to win by more than 3.
THE PICK: New England minus 3
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks (PK) — “Anaconda Malt Liquor gives you oooooh.”
Because anyone watching this game will need to be drunk as fuck. Supposedly the line is off because know one knows if Hasselbeck’s going to play, but let me drop this on you: Three of the starting offensive lineman for the Seahawks are out this week. Get ready to run the jailbreak offense, Seneca! Can’t wait to see Mike Teel!
THE PICK: Jacksonville
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans — “Cream Corn, that’s why they call me that. Smooth.”
Peyton Manning simply looks like the Manning I grew to know and hate in the first part of the decade, only this time without all the jittery, lumpy parts. Somehow Peyton has found the key to an ice cold facade punctuated with downfield strikes. The Titans? They’re done. I hope you don’t get fired, Jeff Fisher, but if you do, how about seeing about that mess in Oakland? I here they’re looking for a new pimp.
THE PICK: Indianapolis minus 3.5
New York Jets (-1) @ Miami Dolphins — “Let everybody know and suckas be warned, that this is the outome when you mess with Bullhorn.”
This actually has nothing to do with this game, it just sounds like something Jets coach Rex Ryan might say at a postgame press conference. I like a one point line, it’s just a question of “Who do you think is going to win this game”. I think Jets.
THE PICK: New York Jets minus 1
Week 4: 7-7
Season: 37-25
And some final advice for all you prospective gamblers:
”I hope you don’t think you’re gonna get any of this cookie… cause if I offered you some of this cookie, this cookie might kill you.”
The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
Perhaps the rest of the league doesn't mind being behind the Ravens.
Clearly, I’m still buying into the Ravens. And if you’re not, I believe Lindi here makes a really solid argument. We’re pressed for time this week, so let’s just get right to it.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10)
Hold on, let me copy my paragraph about the Lions from last week…
The Lions scored 27 against a lower level defense in the Saints, followed by 13 against a pretty decent defense in the Vikings. Would you agree that the Redskins defense is probably somewhere in the middle? Let’s assume the Lions put up 20 points this week. Do you really believe the Redskins can score 27 to cover? Me neither.
Second verse, same as the first:
The Lions scored 27 on the Saints, 13 on a better D in the Vikings, and then 29 on a defense in the middle of those two in the Redskins. Would you agree that the Bears defense is probably a bit better than the Redskins? Let’s assume the Lions put up 17 points this week. Do you really think the Bears can score 27 to cover? Me neith…Wait, you said yes? Well, would it interest you to know that Chicago has scored 15 points at Green Bay, who allowed 31 to the Bengals the following week, 17 against Pittsburgh (without Troy Palomalu) at home, and 25 at Seattle against a depleted (and already suspect) Seahawks defense? Chicago still can’t run the ball, and I think this line is high enough that I like the points.
THE PICK: Detroit and the 10
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns
The return of Derrick Anderson! Because starting a guy who threw 3 picks in 19 attempts last week is going to give you a *spark*. Cincinnati has given me no reason not to think they can beat what might be the worst team in the league by at least a touchdown. Let me put it this way: I’m benching Tony Romo for Carson Palmer in fantasy this week for a reason.
THE PICK: Cincinnati minus 5.5
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans (-9.5)
What is it about the Raiders? I hate the Raiders, but I love the idea of them being good. It must be the style. The Raiders in their glory days were just about being more athletic, being better than the competition. No complicated schemes here, just man defense and straight up football – after all, this is a team coached by Tom Cable and one that Art Shell was able to coach twice. They looked tough in week one, good enough for me to enjoy a brief dalliance with them (against the Chief though) in Week 2, but now the season’s starting to hit a stride and they’re just back to being terrible. JaMarcus Russell can’t pass and Darren McFadden can’t hang onto the ball. Perhaps is just karmic retribution for shit like this:
Then again, I’ve been to the Coliseum, this just adds authenticity to its distinct penitentiary feel.
THE PICK: Houston minus 9.5
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts (PK)
I can’t seem to find a line for this one, but no matter. After the debacle with the play (not to mention the uniforms) against Chicago, I’m not taking the Seahawks against any half decent team for some time to come.
"Can you believe this shit?!"
THE PICK: Indianapolis
Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I don’t know what to make of either of these teams. Tennessee has had some tough losses but has been so horrendously inconsistent that watching them is like watching the final cut of the Everyman movie. Jacksonville is clearly terrible but I’m uncomfortable chalking up last week just to a really bad Houston run defense. I’ll assume Tennessee’s top 5 rushing defense makes the difference here.
THE PICK: Titans minus the 3 (I cannot believe I’m picking the Titans again.)
New York Giants (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs
It seems that many journalists are crowning the Giants as the best team in the NFC almost by defaut? Who have they beaten? A terrible Washington team, a clearly mediocre at best Dallas team (by 2, on a last drive field goal!), and they torched a Tampa Bay team that might challenge the Browns and Rams for the worst team in the league. I may be picking them again them again this week, but that might have more to do with their opponent than anything else.
THE PICK: Giants minus the 9
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3)
It’s nice that people still believe in the Pats enough that they’re giving points to the Ravens this week. It’s not that I think it’s that the Pats can’t win, but their 17th ranked rushing attack against the Ravens #1 rushing defense doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. I said two things last week: I won’t take the Pats again until Tom Brady looks right, and, in regard to the Ravens, ride her ‘til she bucks ya. Perhaps a victory over the Falcons has re-energized the Patriots, but nothing has changed my mind about those sentiments.
THE PICK: Baltimore and the 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-7)
Yikes, I feel sorry for whoever’s stuck watching this game on Sunday. Here’s my prediction for Episode One of the Josh Johnson Experience: 11/26, 110 YDS, 0 TD, 2 INT.
THE PICK: Washington minus 7 (in like a 13-3 game)
Buffalo Bills (-2) @ Miami Dolphins
I’m starting to have sympathy for Bills fans. It used to be schadenfreude, because I’m sorry, making it to four Super Bowls in a row and losing them all is just so horrible it’s funny, but nothing’s worse than wear you are now – the best of the bad teams. Always 8-8, 7-9, 10-6, but no playoffs for a decade. I feel for you, but perhaps vandalizing your players’ homes isn’t the best way to encourage quality free agents to come to Buffalo. Just a thought.
THE PICK: Buffalo minus 2
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints (-7)
Mark Sanchez is due for a bad game on the road. That said, when I first looked at this I thought the Saints were a slam dunk but the longer I stare at it the more I worry that the Jets can keep it close with their defense. Darrelle Revis can’t cover everybody, I guess.
THE PICK: New Orleans minus 7
Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Denver Broncos
I’d love to come up with something quippy about this game, but the Cowboys looked so awful on Monday Night I just can’t take them against anyone that looks even halfway decent. Perhaps I’ve seen too much of Dallas and not enough Denver, but picking the home dog seems awfully attractive here. Let me put it this way: I’m benching Tony Romo for Carson Palmer in fantasy this week for a reason.
THE PICK: Denver and the 3
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-10)
The Niners are legit. The Rams are terrible. *Insert terrible Glen Coffee joke here* Some options I’m too lazy to choose from: Drip, Instant, Iced, Decaf. Oh yeah, and Kyle Boller will be prominently featured as part of the Rams offense. That sound you hear is Donnie Avery hitting the waiver wire so hard he knocked its eye out.
THE PICK: San Francisco minus 10
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)
Two preseason Super Bowl favorites who have been bad so far and even worse to watch. The Chargers have a knack for playing down to their opponents, and the Steelers clearly have some serious flaws on both sides of the ball. I’d be worried about the Chargers shoddy run D if the Steelers could run the ball at all. This game has all the makings of a slapfight. I’m taking the Chargers here, but just because I don’t think either team is going to win by more than 3.
THE PICK: San Diego and the 5
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
I refuse to discuss Brett Fucking Favre. The Vikings are a miracle TD away from being 2-1, rather than 3-0, and one of those wins was against the Browns. The Packers are 2-1, with a win against the Rams. What I’m saying is, it would appear at first that these teams are nearly even, and if you had asked me before the season which one I thought would win the division, I would have said the Packers. But the Packers are allowing 130 yards a game on the ground, and if they can’t bottle up Adrian Peterson, they can’t win.
THE PICK: Vikings minus 3.5
Week 3: 12-4
Season: 30-18
If you’re a fan of comedy, you’re probably familiar with Patton Oswalt referring to the KFC Famous Bowl as a “failure pile in a sadness bowl” (and if you’re not, not to fret! I’ve included the video below).
As funny as that is, I could ultimately care less because when I go to KFC, it’s to eat fried chicken (and the gravy, oooh the gravy). But when I recently visited a KFC for the first time in years, I was being a hand wringing pussy about getting a bucket of original recipe because I, and I shit you not, “wasn’t in the mood to get my hands greasy and deal with all those bones and shit”.
Look, I know, ok? I don’t know what the hell was going on with me but suffice it to say I just didn’t feel like eating a drumstick, fighting to get the last bit of chicken goodness off of it and having one of those big black veins come snapping back at me. I just wasn’t feeling it. My only saving grace here is that I didn’t say that previous quoted sentence out loud, I was just thinking it.
I debated a chicken sandwich before deciding on the “Colonel’s Classic Strips” featuring 3 chicken strips and two sides. I didn’t take a close look at it until I got home, and this is what you get for your hard-earned $7.49:
Well fuck you, KFC. What kind of meal is this? This is some ol’ bullshit. It began to dawn on me that as an adult, I can’t remember one time I’ve gone to KFC and enjoyed what I was given (still, except for the gravy). The chicken always tastes vaguely old and rubbery, the chicken pieces are small and withered, and it’s just a disappointing experience overall. I thought KFC was supposed to be this monstrosity growing headless chickens in cages and pumping them full of hormones so the pieces of chicken would be all big and shit? Well, who fell down on the steroid pumping job here?
I hate to say it, but that’s it, KFC. This was the last straw. I will never again be disappointed in your crappy food.
“What’s that? You have a sandwich now that’s two pieces of chicken with cheese and bacon in the middle? No bread you say?! Well, now. Perhaps I’ve been a bit hasty…”
Seen on the back of a bus just the other day in Downtown Seattle:
Well now, Evergreen Washelli Funeral Home, you clearly want to be someone’s service provider, or you wouldn’t be advertising, now, would you?
Every time I look at this, I wish that right above the url there was some small italic type that said, “but just in case you’re an idiot…”
The weekly NFL picks column has no gimmick, I just like gambling, and I like to see how I’d fair over the course of the season. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it. Home team always listed second.
Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.
Proof positive that the white man's overbite doesn't discriminate
Years ago, when I was but a callow youth, I arrived late to a party hosted by a female acquaintance. I had long harbored an attraction to this noho, a notorious jersey chaser with a mercurial nature with regard to men, despite my better judgment. Upon my arrival, said hostess greeted me with an affection that had never previously been demonstrated. My friends in attendance cocked a skeptical eyebrow, but I paid them no mind. After all, I was no D-I athlete, and yet here we were. She was being nice. I thought, not unlike Lamar Odom, that I might be able to turn a ho into a housewife. I figured if I treated her differently, if I was nice to her, if I listened, that maybe she could be my girlfriend. As we spent more time together, I continually ignored the obvious signs that she wouldn’t ever be that kind of girl, as well as the astute warnings of my friend that I was only headed down a road that would lead me to nothing but frustration and anger. You certainly won’t be surprised to hear that they were right. Some things just never pan out they way you hope, and it only makes things worse when you get a little taste of something that reinforces your pre-conceived notions about how something might work out. This young lady’s name was Week 2.
Last week was rough. Unfortunately for me, a solid Week 1 only reinforced the ill formed opinions I entered the season with, which led me down a dark and dangerous path. For everyone knows that it’s not what you know in gambling, it’s everything that you don’t. Luckily, I was able to escape with a .500 record and no real injuries except for those to my pride. Last week I touted the Seahawks as a way to make yourself some money this year. Last week I figured the Cowboys wouldn’t let Jerry down while christening his new space station. Last week there was no way Green Bay would lose to the Bengals at home. In far too many matchups, I let what I wanted to happen get in the way of realizing what was actually going to happen. Well, NFL, my friends were right. I can’t tame you, I can only go along for the ride.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-13)
I have bought into the Ravens so hard it’s embarrassing. They just look to me like one of the few complete teams in the league. I’m starting to feel like they’re the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. That’s right, after two weeks! Either way, ride her ‘til she bucks ya.
THE PICK: Baltimore minus 13
New York Giants (-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I would love to come up with something interesting to say about this game, but let’s look at it this way. Do I think the Giants are going to win? Yes. Do I think they are going to win by at least a touchdown? Yes. Done.
THE PICK: New York minus 7
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ St. Louis Rams
One of two things is true: The Cincinnati defense is actually good, or the Packers aren’t nearly as good as I thought. The fortunate thing is that in this matchup only one truth matters: The Rams are fucking terrible.
THE PICK: Green Bay minus 6.5
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4)
Wow the Patriots looked awful last week. I’ve bought into the Jets defense (and the Jets in general, with the notable exception of Thomas Jones), but the Patriots couldn’t do anything. They can’t run, they can’t pass block, and the only reason they won in Week 1 was because of a spectacular bed-shitting by the Bills – a team that is historically best at shitting the bed. What I’m saying here is I actually think the Falcons might be the better team, and that is an indisputable fact through the first two weeks. Until Brady looks right, I’m not taking the Pats, I’m taking the points.
THE PICK: Atlanta and the 4
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
Why is it that the pronunciation of people’s names are completely outside the boundaries of the normal rules of English? And what’s more annoying, thins like Kevin Kolb being pronounced Kevin Cobb or the willful misspelling of a standard name that serves no purpose other than to make it impossible to spell? For instance, I used to work with a woman named Stephanie, only her parents decided it needed to be spelled Steffyni. What? Why?! That’s not creative, you douchebags, it’s just annoying! I’m naming my kid M!k8zll and calling him Michael.
THE PICK: Philly minus 9
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings (-7)
An epic battle of which running back has the more annoying nagging injury. Gore’s ankle versus AP’s back (the cause of which is captured in great and entertaining detail over here). I’m going to have to assume they both go, but if they don’t, one must think Chester Taylor will be more effective than Glen Coffee. The only thing holding me back from picking the Vikings is the fact that this is the first team they’ve seen that isn’t a complete disaster. The 49ers are playing tough D and something tells me we’re going to get a Sage Rosenfels/Tavaris Jackson sighting before this one’s over.
THE PICK: San Francisco and the 7
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
Did you know that technically Jacksonville is the largest city in Florida? The population of the city proper is nearly twice the size of Miami. However, there must not be much to the area outside the city, since the surrouding metro area of Miami has nearly five times the population of the capital. Oh, could it be that Jacksonville only seems big because the city limits basically includes the entire county? I’m sorry, what’s that? You don’t give a shit about this? Well I don’t give a shit about this game. Move the Jags to LA already.
THE PICK: Houston minus 3.5
Oh, I’ve been told you want an actual reason the Jags will lose this week – well, check out the special teams pursuit of Antrel Rolle’s blocked FG touchdown against them from Week 2. Are they even trying to stop him?
Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions
I’ve seen people touting the Lions as a sucker bet this week. That’s the trendy action, following Washington’s embarrassing win at home against the god-awful Rams. I guess that means I’m a Tootsie Pop lickin’ fool, because the way I see it is thus: The Lions scored 27 against a lower level defense in the Saints, followed by 13 against a pretty decent defense in the Vikings. Would you agree that the Redskins defense is probably somewhere in the middle? Let’s assume the Lions put up 20 points this week. Do you really believe the Redskins can score 27 to cover? Me neither.
THE PICK: Detroit and the 6.5
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets (-3)
This might be the game I want to watch the most come Sunday. Why? Because I’m buying into the Jets just like everyone else, but I still think the Titans are good. If the Titans go to 0-3 their season is all but over, and the Jets just have to be due for a letdown. Maybe if I just keep typing the answers will come to me, because I don’t have a clue how to play this one. Hold on while I flip a coin…
THE PICK: Tennessee and the 3 (oy.)
New Orleans Saints (-6) @ Buffalo Bills
I’ve seen some chatter that the Bills are tough and this is a good underdog play. Really? The Bills have beaten the Bucs. The Saints offense has been nothing short of unstoppable. Let me put it this way, if it was the Eagles (-3) against the Bills, I bet you’re taking the Eagles, right? Well, the Saints beat Philly by 26.
THE PICK: New Orleans minus the 6
Chicago Bears (-2) @ Seattle Seahawks
Why, exactly, is it legal for a defender to go low and lay a hit on someone as they are going to the ground? You see this all the time. Let’s take a look at a famous example that ended Trent Green’s season:
You see the defender load up to put his shoulder in Green’s chest. But you can also see Trent sense the danger and start his slide. As he does that, the defender gets lower to make sure he can drill a QB that’s already giving himself up. I can’t recall if this was flagged or not, but it’s amazing how often you see someone diving low into a player that’s already on his way to the ground. If you think I’m bitching about Patrick Willis’s hit last week that broke Matt Hasselbeck’s ribs, you’re damn right. Here’s another example that occurred more recently (fast forward to 1:28):
Late hit or no, why is it legal for the defender to go low in that situation? You can’t tell me they can’t help it – if you can adjust your hit to start going low when you see the player going low, then you sure as hell can keep from doing it altogether.
In other news, the Seahawks problems don’t start and end at QB, it’s a defensive issue. I don’t respect the Bears offense at all and think the Seattle home field advantage is enough to get the Seahawks over the hump this week
THE PICK: Seattle and the 2
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) at Cincinnati Bengals
I like the Bengals enough, particularly their defense, to back them at home against an underwhelming Steelers team. Not to mention that Cedric Benson (yes, that Cedric Benson) has outgained all three Steelers running backs combined by 85 yards over the first two weeks. Pittsburgh can’t move the football. Cincinnati can.
THE PICK: Cincy and the 4
Denver Broncos (-1) @ Oakland Raiders
I have no idea why, but I really like the idea of Oakland being good again. They’re defense is fun to watch and those guys are flying all over the place. But JaMarcus Russell sucks. Oh lord does he suck. Nothing better than when your coach admits to the media that you suck, too.
THE PICK: Denver minus 1
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (-6)
Miami’s ball control offense is going to make Norv Turner poop his pants and Phil Rivers throw at least one awful awful pick in the 4th quarter. Normally I’d probably like the Chargers going away, but it seems that they have yet to fire on two cylinders at any one time, let alone all.
THE PICK: Miami and the 6
Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ Arizona Cardinals
Look, I’m not backing of my position that the Cardinals suck. They won last week only because the Jaguars suck even more. I’m aware that the Colts have been the beneficiaries of two somewhat crazy finishes against crappy teams. Guess what? I bet it happens again.
THE PICK: Colts minus the 2
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (-9)
The battle of the embattled quarterbacks! By the way, how quickly did the Cowboys fans turn on Romo? It’s been two weeks! The Giants won with a last minute field goal, and they are probably the better team. Yes, if Romo is just halfway decent, the Cowboys probably win by a TD, but oh well. Originally I thought this line was too high, that Carolina played pretty tough last week, and while I expect the Cowboys to win, I didn’t like the margin here, but that quick look at the Giants game changed my minds. I’m giving Romo another chance.
THE PICK: Cowboys minus 9
Week 2: 8-8
Season: 18-14
