General Disdain

Week 12 NFL Picks

2009 November 26

tags: cheerleaders, gambling, lines, NFL, Picks, spread

by Keifer Nandez

Had today’s games all lined up and forgot to hit “Publish”. Sunday’s picks will be are up…sometime before 10 AM PST on Sunday. Happy Turkey Day!

Green Bay Packers (-13) @ Detroit Lions
Green Bay’s busted defense vs. Detroit’s broken down offense. Let’s take the points.
The Pick: Detroit (+13)

Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys (-14)
Might be the wrong call here, but I can’t help but take the points after Oakland stole one last week and Dallas looked like hell against the Redskins.
The Pick: Oakland (+14)

NY Giants (-6) @ Denver Broncos
I’m taking the Giants to cover simply because I don’t think Orton is healthy enough to be effective AND Denver can’t run the ball at all.
The Pick: NY Giants (-6)

–Saturday Update–

I owe you an apology. This is supposed to be a gambling column, not a sports opinion column, despite all evidence to the contrary. And those picks right there? Those picks up there? Those picks are not the work of a seasoned gambler, but someone who was more interested in looking smart than actually getting picks correct. I am disgusted with myself for putting that up there knowing full well I spent next to no time looking into things like injuries, the weather, specific defensive and offensive success and failure, and all the other little things I do when trying to make a pick that would make me money.

So, I Keifer Nandez, do solemnly swear that if I’m going to post picks with no research, I’ll put a disclaimer up there saying so. Not as a built in excuse for being wrong – but to ensure that any other degenerates out there wagering their mortgage based on this idiot’s opinion won’t blame any losses incurred on said idiot for starting the week 0-3 because he was preoccupied with gorging himself on a Thanksgiving feast.

Speaking of the holidays, as I was deciding on a picture for this week’s post, I came across reason #428 why it sucks to live in New England in the winter. Because during Week 11 at a Patriots game…

…somebody’s hot mom shakes pom poms for the Pats in her winter clothes. Meanwhile, on the very same day in Tampa…

…these girls twirled around in the most ridiculous excuse for a “skirt” that I’ve ever seen. So remember, when getting excited about the Patriots being the team of the decade, there’s a reason Tampa Bay can suck year after year and nobody really cares. Also available in Tampa…

…the Variety Pack. It has something for everyone.

See? I told you I’d make it up to you. As always (except for my earlier lapse), these are the picks I’d make if I was in a sports book with a was of cash in my hand.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-12.5)
Tampa’s has this thing for covering against mediocre teams. Sure, they got blown out by the Saints and the Patriots, but they covered against Carolina, Green Bay, and Miami. Then again, they are going on the road against a team that’s needed to run well to win, and Tampa boasts the league’s worst rushing defense. All that running’s gonna burn clock, and I just don’t like the Falcons to win by 13. Frankly, I’d stay away from this. And if you didn’t think I was genuinely sorry for my terrible picks from Thursday, I just spent at least 15 minutes working up a way to pick this game that I couldn’t care less about.
The Pick: Tampa Bay (+12.5)

Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills
I don’t particularly like Miami in the cold weather locale, but Buffalo’s offense has been so terrible it’s hard to wager on them to cover any kind of spread, let alone win. They scored 15 points last week and everyone got all excited simply because it was a good game for Terrell Owens. If Marshawn Lynch didn’t look like he’s suddenly turned into the useless version of Shaun Alexander (run 3 yards and fall down), I might think Buffalo could manufacture something. As it is, I’ll take Ricky Williams to run roughshod all over Buffalo’s terrible run defense.
The Pick: Miami (-3)

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-15)
Sure, Cleveland exploded for 37 points while the Bengals laid an egg in Oakland, but I don’t think I can help but assume that was an aberration on both counts – a product of the vulnerable defense of the Detroit Lions and an emotional letdown for Cincinnati a week after sweeping Baltimore. If I’d had to pick this in Week 10, I would taken Cincy in a heartbeat. I will admit that last week’s results make me feel less confident in this pick, but it’s still the right call.
The Pick: Cincinnati (-15)

Indianapolis Colts (-4) @ Houston Texans*
I’ve seen this mentioned as a potential upset in more than one place this week. Two things about that? Why pick against the Colts against a team like Houston? The Colts have the game’s best closer in Peyton Manning, and the Texans continue to demonstrate week after week that they can’t get it done in crunch time.
The Pick: Indianapolis (-4)

Carolina Panthers @ NY Jets (-2.5)
This is like the mediocrity bowl. Two 4-6 teams battle for the right to say they suck less! Two turnover prone embattled quarterbacks struggle to salvage their seasons! Let’s hope just for the sake on entertainment these teams both stay heavy on the ground and we see a couple of breakaways. That scenario favors the Panthers just a tad, right? Say, 3 points worth?
The Pick: Carolina (-2.5)

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
The Redskins’ strength is in their secondary, which may result in the big play potential of the Eagles being neutralized. But a big day for LeSean McCoy isn’t out of the question, and I like the single digit spread in this case. I do hate betting on the Eagles, though. They always seem to be the worst good team to bet on, because their quarterback and coach can be so maddeningly inconsistent. The feel like they should be better than 6-4. Dammit, I just “seed of doubted” myself. Gut says Eagles. I’m sticking with it.
The Pick: Philadelphia (-9)

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams*
I would have picked the Seahawks even if Marc Bulger hadn’t broken his leg. Steven Jackson still scares the crap out of me, but I think the Hawks will be able to move the ball this week as well. I like Seattle to win, and with the small spread, that’s enough.
The Pick: Seattle (-2.5)

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-14.5)
The Chargers are starting to get “The Look”, after staying true to Norv Turner tradition and spending the first third of the season looking like crap. The only thing that worries me here is the possibility of a Chris Chambers Revenge Game. Ultimately, I believe the Charger offense is going to put up enough points that taking them to cover feels like the right thing to do. The chances of the shootout are less than 50% in my opinion, and I think a shootout is the only way the Chiefs can cover.
The Pick: San Diego (-14.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco Giants (-3)
I’m not sure I understand this line. The Jags are 6-4 versus the Niners’ 4-6. We went over this with Jacksonville last week – they win but fail to cover against crappy teams and get blown out by good teams. Sure, that rule’s only really applied when they’ve been favored, but their close calls have been against some of the dregs of the league. The Niners’ willingness to put up a fight is enough for me.
The Pick: San Francisco (-3)

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)*
Have we had a Jay Cutler “mic’d up” yet? I’ve got to wonder what he says to his team in the huddle. I feel like he mumbles the play then shouts at the first person to ask him to repeat himself, all the while shaking his head like they are the idiots for not hearing his play call. Then I bet he pouts and leaves after the game without saying a word to anyone. Jay sure does look like he feels sorry for himself. Life is so haaard as a quarterback! Oh, right, the game. The Vikings win going away.
The Pick: Minnesota (-9.5)

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (-3)
I don’t particularly like the Cards traveling East, and I’d stay away from this because of Kurt Warner’s questionable status. I’ll assume he can’t go and that Matt Leinart can’t get it done against the resurgent Titans. I expect the Vince Young/Chris Johnson tandem to be effective on the ground, and that should be good enough to get the W.
The Pick: Tennessee (-3)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-2)
It’s the “Hey, Aren’t These Teams Supposed To Be Good?” game of the week. Minus Troy Polamalu, and plus a recent Roethlisberger concussion, I can’t wager on the Steelers to get it done.
The Pick: Baltimore (-2)

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Now this is a quality Monday Night Football game. I don’t like it for betting purposes, but I sure am excited to watch it. I like the Saints in this game, and I can’t pick against an undefeated team with that offensive firepower versus a leaky-at-times New England defense. I believe Brady and his boys can keep it close though. Let’s all hope we get a 38-35 kinda game.
The Pick: New Orleans (-2.5)

Week 11: 9-7
Season: 85-72-2
3 Team Tease: 1-4

Week 11 NFL Picks

2009 November 19

4 Comments

tags: cheerleaders, gambling, lines, NFL, Picks, spread

by Keifer Nandez

Tonight’s game only is below. The rest of the Week 10 picks will be have been delivered hot and fresh tomorrow just a scroll away.

Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers (-3)
Jake Delhomme has gone three games without throwing a pick! Did you know that in all but one game this season, if Jake threw for less than 200 yards, the Panthers won? The only exception is the season opener, where he threw for only 73 yards, but completed four passes to the Eagles secondary. Seriously. Go see for yourself. The point? The point is that it seems as though John Fox has realized he has two talented backs and perhaps the best game plan when your QB keeps sucking is to let those fools run wild. Not to mention that the focus on the running game has elevated Original Steve Smith back to relevance. Oh, and Ronnie Brown hit the IR this week. I think that might matter too.
THE PICK: Carolina (-3)

–Friday Update–

She's not turning her head, Ricky Williams just ran by

You know what sucks about Thursday night football? Putting together the Friday picks update and watching your initial pick, right up top there for all the world to see, come completely apart right in front of your eyes. I do say, it is mightily distracting to know you totally blew it already once when trying to pick 15 other games. For what it’s worth, Jake Delhomme passed for more than 200 yards in this Carolina loss (and threw a pretty gross pick – Jake, if you’re going to have to sail the ball because you’re under pressure, over the middle of the field is probably not the best place to do it). So, at the very least, some piece of my analysis was prescient.

The problem for Carolina last night was defense. Who knew there was no answer for Ricky Williams? And how about the speed displayed by those 32 year old legs? Ricky scored TDs off the edge two different times in this game, and ran for tough yards up the middle as well. I’m interested to see how this progresses over the last 6 weeks of the season – sure, Carolina’s run D is pretty terrible, but Miami only sees one more Top 10 rushing defense the rest of the way (the #1 Steelers, in Week 17). Suddenly, Miami looks primed for a first round playoff exit.

At least the game was fun to watch last night. It’s Friday, I’m in a good mood, let’s make some money.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (PK)*
I’m not going to bother rehashing the Pats’ choke Colts’ win last week. Nothing that happened changed my feelings about how this game is going to play out. The Ravens have a better ground game, but in order for that to really come into play, they’d have to build an early lead. Both these teams have issues in the secondary. One team has Joe Flacco and Derrick Mason. The other team has Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne.
THE PICK: Indianapolis

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-12)
I personally am not offended by the term “Redskins”. I understand that it’s offensive, but I’ve never heard it used in offensive fashion, so perhaps my naiveté renders me unable of being objective about how offensive it really is. I discussed this recently with a Native American acquaintance, and he summed it up thusly: “No, it doesn’t bother me, but that’s mostly because I don’t care. Rich white people have been doing whatever they like for centuries in this country, what’s to change it now? Imagine if Oakland was the ‘Oakland Darkies’. That’s about the equivalent of what it’s like.” Ok then, time to change THAT nickname! Still, the small child in me who grew up before political correctness enjoys the fact that these two teams are playing “Cowboys and Indians” this weekend.
THE PICK: Washington (+12)

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)
When I first wrote this, I accidentally typed Cavaliers instead of Browns. All this “Could LeBron play in the NFL?” talk clearly has me distracted. Or, perhaps the Browns are just so terrible that I’ve started to block out their existence. Speaking of LeBron, I saw a poll online somewhere on ESPN.com that I’m too lazy to go find asking whether LBJ could play in the NFL or not. The vote split was 60/40 in favor of “yes”. Are you other 40% just idiots or what? You don’t think the most dominant physical force we’ve ever seen in the NBA couldn’t play in the NFL? Are you Jeremy Shockey fans? The answer to that question is yes, yes, a thousand times yes, and if we were lucky enough to see it happen it would be one of the coolest sports stories of all time. You’d watch every single effing Browns’ game, that’s for damn sure.
THE PICK: Detroit (-3.5)

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-5.5)
I’m so confused by both of these teams. They both have numerous warts, but also both feel like teams that could beat any team on any given week. I want to believe that last week’s win over Dallas was a turning point for the Packers, but there’s nothing about a win over the Cowboys that makes me feel good about betting on Green Bay. Dallas just stinks of fraud. Let’s look at it from this angle: The Niners beat a terrible Bears team by 4 last week, barely hanging on to the victory after Jay Cutler threw his fifth interception. 5 turnovers should equal a sizeable win against what has been a terrible defense. If Green Bay’s defense even plays at 80% of the level we saw against Dallas, the Packers should win easily (I typed that with such conviction, but I don’t believe a word of it. Stay away from this.)
THE PICK: Green Bay (-5.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-8) @ Buffalo Bills
Could the Jags hose me one more time please? I have not picked one Jags game correctly all season. Take that as fair warning. I’m going to analyze this from a completely objective standpoint, with no actual football factors involved. What’s Jax done against the spread this year?

Week 1 – 7 point dogs to Indy – covered and lost 14-12
Week 2 – 3 point favorites over Arizona – lost 31-17
Week 3 – 3.5 point dogs to Houston – won 31-24
Week 4 – 3 point dogs to TEN – won 37-17
Week 5 – PK with Seattle – lost 41-0
Week 6 – 10 point dogs to STL – failed to cover but won 23-20
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – 3 point dogs to TEN (déjà vu) – lost 30-13
Week 9 – 6.5 point favorites over KC – failed to cover but won 24-21
Week 10 – 7 point dogs to the Jets – won 24-22

So they haven’t covered as a favorite once this year. That’s enough for me.
THE PICK: Buffalo (+8) Gross!

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs*
Pittsburgh’s got talent, they have just struggled in some big spots this year. It seems that Big Ben’s late game luck may have finally started to balance out. That said, the Steelers may have struggled against quality teams, but they have little trouble beating up on the league’s weak sisters.
THE PICK: Pittsburgh (-10)

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-11)
The Vikings did struggle to cover the 15.5 against Detroit, and I don’t like laying this many points, but at home, against a team that does not play well on the road and who simply doesn’t have the horses to cover all the Vikings’ weapons and has folded over and over again this season? I like the Vikings, and I like them big.
THE PICK: Minnesota (-11)

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-7)
I don’t know what to make of the Falcons. What I do know is that if you look at their record this year, they haven’t beaten anyone who I believe to be as good as or better than the Giants, and they have lost to teams that I believe to be worse than the Giants. As long as the Giants QB is Eli Manning I’m looking at the weather report for East Rutherford, and it looks pretty mild this weekend in New Jersey. Sounds like a Giants win to me.
THE PICK: NY Giants (-7)

New Orleans Saints (-11.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
The Saints have failed to cover two weeks in a row against relatively crappy teams (St. Louis, Carolina) when faced with a double digit spread. But taking the points means betting on Josh Freeman, Derrick Ward, and Head Coach Raheem Morris. No thank you.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-11.5)

Arizona Cardinals (-9) @ St. Louis Rams
On the other side of the duvet, the Rams have covered two games in a row, and Steven Jackson is now officially having one of the greatest “Great Player on a Bad Team” seasons in recent NFL history. Arizona is still suspect on D, but I feel like too many things have to go right for the Rams to cover here.
THE PICK: Arizona (-9)

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ Denver Broncos
This game is now OFF on every betting site I can find (call it the Kyle Orton Factor). But I did see this 3 point line earlier in the week so that’s what we’re going with. Sorry Broncos fans, I don’t see the losing streak ending this week, San Diego is taking care of business lately. Also, if Chris Simms really is the starter, you’re fucked from the get-go.
THE PICK: San Diego (-3)

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-10.5)
I’m just going with Angry Belichick here.
THE PICK: New England (-10.5)

Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) @ Oakland Raiders
It sucks when your solution at QB is Bruce Gradkowski. I suppose there’s a chance this thing could be close, when you consider that the Bengals top two offensive weapons are going to be MIA (Benson to injury, Ochocinco to the Nnamdi Asomugha fantasy points black hole), but then again, Bruce Gradkowski.
THE PICK: Cincinnati (-9.5)

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) @ Chicago Bears
Really? Two points? Against the Bears? I realize Brian Westbrook is important, but didn’t the Eagles just beat the holy hell out of the Giants without him? I’d tease this but the Eagles coach is still Andy Reid, and god forbid they let the Bears hang around.
THE PICK: Philadelphia (-2)

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
I’m always curious about the fan dynamic in games like these. Certainly there must be old Houston Oilers fans that followed the team to Tennessee and never made the switch, right? I’d like to watch this game at a bar in Houston surrounded by both kinds of fans. If an enterprising University of Houston anthropology major wants to study this and write it up, you can run it here. At any rate, while Tennessee certainly is fun to watch and Chris Johnson seems to be a mix of young LaDainian Tomlinson and Barry Sanders, it’s hard to bet on a team that’s yet to beat anyone with a winning record. I fully believe Tennessee can win this game, but I don’t think they’re going to.
THE PICK: Houston (-3.5)

Week 10: 8-7
Season: 76-65-2
3 Team Tease: 1-3
Before I sign off for the weekend, I feel compelled to explain the 3 team tease payoff here. Sure, I’m 1-3 since I started tracking but a three team tease generally pays out at minimum 12-1, so the one victory covers 12 weeks of additional betting. Also, I wouldn’t make this bet every week, but I’m just offering my opinion on what three teamer I’d bet. Do with it what you will. The point is, even if you only hit 2 three teamers all season, you’d end up in the black.

Week 10 NFL Picks

2009 November 12

3 Comments

tags: cheerleaders, gambling, lines, NFL, Picks, spread

by Keifer Nandez

Tonight’s game only is below. The rest of the Week 10 picks will be have been delivered hot and fresh tomorrow just a scroll away.

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)
These teams are remarkable similar, except in their strengths. Both have massive questions on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. Both are underachieving and looking like they have no shot to make the playoffs. But the 49ers have something important the Bears lack, something that’s particularly important when two crappy teams face off: a running game. Sure, the Bears have Jay Cutler at QB, and no matter how hard you want to try and sell me on the “resurrection” of Alex Smith, he’s still not Jay Cutler. But while Cutler is probably good for 2-3 TD passes, he’s probably also good for at least one backbreaking pick. I say between that and Frank Gore, the Niners get a W.
THE PICK: San Francisco (-3)

–Friday Update–

I haven’t had occasion this season to feature the 49ers cheerleaders, or the “Gold Rush” to those in the know. After spending a few minutes skimming through pictures, I do declare that I have been missing out. Perhaps I would have known that after last night, but what the hell is up with the NFL Network’s HD? It’s on an HD channel, my TV is connected with an HDMI cable, there’s a little “NFL HD” logo in the upper right corner, but I can say with unequivocal certainty that the game last night was not in HD. The picture was nearly as bad as Fox Sports’ “HD” coverage, a service my cronies and I have taken to calling “Ah-chay Day” as if it were the Mexican equivalent of HD.

Lies!

Get it together, NFLN. I have to pay extra already to get your stupid channel, I’d rather it not look like everyone was covered in a fine layer of digital hair. Perhaps I’m spoiled, but I’ve been watching sports in HD long enough now that I’ve forgotten what it’s like to see a game that looks like shit (and this is coming from a guy who has watched a World Series in a parking lot with rabbit ears – “Is that the ball?! I don’t know. Did he catch it?! Who? Which team is that?!”). I’m willing to deal with it begrudgingly when I’ve got no other choice, but when I kick back with a beer in the comfort of my own home to enjoy the NFL on a weekday evening (which I love), I want the best picture possible, and right now, NFLN is not delivering.

Nice to start the week off on a high note with a 49ers cover, let’s see what the rest of the weekend has in store.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers
Both these teams can run the ball, and each are facing the 24th and 23rd ranked run defense, respectively. So if we call that a wash, we’ve got to look at the passing game. Matt Ryan has been pretty terrible the last few weeks, but Jake Delhomme was abjectly horrendous for weeks prior. I think this is a winnable game for Carolina, but I also think the Falcons might still be a playoff team, and if I’m right about that, then they have to win here.
THE PICK: Atlanta (-1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-10)
What the hell was the deal last week with Green Bay? Are they that cooked? It’s not like Tampa looked good, Green Bay just couldn’t do anything. I’ve been vascillating on my opinion of Miami week to week, but other than the Ted Ginn game against the Jets, they have looked pretty effective, and they’ve lost some heartbreakers to good teams. It’s not that I don’t think Miami is going to win, but I don’t like laying 10, I don’t like it at all.
THE PICK: Miami (-10)

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-15.5)*
Let me put it this way. In a fantasy league, I am starting both Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin.
THE PICK: Minnesota (-15.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-7.5)
Lots of talk this week about how it feels like the Jags are something like 2-6, despite the fact that both of these teams are 4-4. The Jags, however, are 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road, and can’t cover to save their lives. Their 3 home wins? A drubbing of Tennessee in Week 4, followed by 3 point wins over St. Louis and Kansas City. That is really really gross. Meanwhile their average margin of defeat on the road is 20 (by 2 to Indy, by 41 (!) to Seattle, and then by 17 to Tennessee). I originally liked the Jags to cover here because I hardly believe in the Jets, but the more I look at what Jax has done this year, the more I expect them to get rolled.
THE PICK: NY Jets (-7.5)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Do you believe that the Steelers lost to the Bears in week 2? That’s not relevant, I just wanted to point it out because it’s shameful and I hate the Steelers. I’m coming around on the Bengals, particularly after the season sweep of Baltimore. But, looking at Cincy’s schedule, they really haven’t been tested on the road (@GB, @CLE, @BAL). I don’t necessarily think the Bengals are going to win, but I like them to keep it close.
THE PICK: Cincinnati (+7.5)

New Orleans Saints (-14) @ St. Louis Rams*
Two weeks in a row that the Saints have failed to cover. Of course, that was a money maker for me last week, so who am I to complain. Look, Steven Jackson is going to get his yards, but St. Louis is terrible. Watch one of their games if you haven’t yet. Everybody but Jackson has a look on their face like they can’t wait for the season to end. When their down by 4 TDs in the 4th Quarter of this one, that look might become so prevalent on their sideline that your TV will start to emit an actual stench.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-14)

Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Only two teams in the league would have their starting QB come off injury and not have a single fan excited for the boost that should give the team. As long as Vince Young has Chris Johnson, the Titans should continue to beat up on the bad teams left on their schedule.
THE PICK: Tennessee (-6.5)

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins*
How bad have the Broncos looked in their two losses? They haven’t been able to do anything, and I mean anything at all, on offense. They don’t really have much of a run game and if Kyle Orton can’t check down, the Broncos offense sputters. The Redskins, though, are missing Chris Cooley, Clinton Portis, and now Ladell Betts has an ankle issue. If Roc Alexander is getting carries, you know the team is in trouble.
THE PICK: Denver (-4.5)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-1)
So, Kansas City has only won one game and the Raiders two? This game is horrible. What I do know is that over the course of the season when picking games, barring that Eagles fiasco, I’ve felt good picking the Raider games. What I haven’t felt good about and have struggled with is KC, which seems like they are capable of more week to week. What does that mean? I have no idea.
THE PICK: Kansas City (+1)

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-9)
As I started to break down this game into strengths and weaknesses, I realized that the Seahawks are just a crappier version of Arizona. Questionable run game, huge issues in the defensive secondary, decent pass rush, awesome downfield passing game. Wait, that last one is just Arizona. Barring some kind of turnover mess, the Cardinals should win this one going away.
THE PICK: Arizona (-9)

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has become a team that you don’t want to have money involved with, and I mean that both betting with and against them. They’re clearly talented, but their offensive line issues are too problematic to expect any consistency week to week. Unfortunately, teams like this sometimes have games where things go their way. Stay away from the Pack until something changes.
THE PICK: Dallas (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
Norv Turner vs. Andy Reid. Which team is going to have a late game clock-management gaffe in this one? After that debacle last week, I just can’t take the Eagles, particularly on the road. Let us not forget that the last time they visited the West Coast, they pooped their pants against Oakland. San Diego came through for me against the Giants, I’m sticking with them.
THE PICK: San Diego (-3)

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
I feel like the Pats are going to win this game. The Colts defensive issues scare me, particularly since it seems that Tom Brady continues to improve each week. That said, can you bet against Peyton Manning in a game like this one? I don’t know. Don’t put money on this one unless you want to be crying into your beer at the end of the night.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-2.5)

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (-12)
I’m still not betting on Cleveland. Ever. At this point they should just get Josh Cribbs the ball on every play. It will be better than than anything else they’ve done all season.
THE PICK: Baltimore (-12)

Week 9: 8-4

Season: 69-58-2

3 Team Tease: 1-2

Week 9 NFL Picks

2009 November 6

Week 8 NFL Picks

2009 October 30

2 Comments

tags: cheerleaders, gambling, lines, NFL, Picks, spread

by Keifer Nandez

The weekly NFL picks column is a stream of consciousness on how I’d lay my bets if gambling were legal outside of Nevada. And hell, if you’re struggling to make up your mind, maybe you’ll get something out of it – for entertainment purposes only, of course. Home team always listed second.

Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.

You have every right to look self satisfied.

For years, I’ve hated Peyton Manning. For no particular reason, I was always a Tom Brady guy. But since the Super Bowl win Peyton seems to have risen to a level beyond what we’ve seen in the past. The difference isn’t in the numbers – truly, a huge part of QB stats is directly dependant on the quality of the offensive line’s pass protection and how good the receivers are at getting open. The difference this year for Peyton seems to be that he just doesn’t miss throws. I’ve seen a lot of Colts games this year (says more about the NFL’s hard-on for putting them on as the night game than my interest in them), and Peyton simply doesn’t miss his target. He doesn’t need the receiver to be open, he just needs them to come up with the ball.

Just last week, I watched Pierre Garçon run a skinny post in which the opposing safety had blanket coverage on him. Literally stride for stride, could not have been more covered unless he was hauling the safety around on his back like they were Master Blaster. Peyton slings it 40 yards anyway, and hits Garçon just over the safety’s outstretched arms. Garçon couldn’t make the catch (though the ball simply fell between his arms untouched by the safety), but it was an amazing throw nonetheless.

I realized then that my affection for athletes has little to do with who they play for or what the situation is, it’s simply a function of respect. Awesome in the regular season but can’t get it done in the playoffs? You stink. Do it year after year but fail to have the talent to get to the playoffs? Respect (Yeah, I’m talking about Drew Brees here).

So Peyton, after years of hating you for no particular reason other than your happy feet, and then only begrudgingly giving you the respect you deserve after your Super Bowl win (I mean, come on, you beat a Bears team with Rex effing Grossman at QB), I am now ready to respect your otherworldly football talents. When I’ve got to call my wife into the room to see a play (see: Larry Fitzgerald in the Super Bowl last year), I know you’re doing something special. Here’s to a Colts/Saints Super Bowl that could go down in history.

Oh, while we’re on the subject of great plays, let’s enjoy the one that got the most skip backs on my DVR last week:

Is there anything better than when a defender gets completely trucked? Ah, football. On to the picks! Remember to look for the * designating my three team tease for the week. 1-0 so far!

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Baltimore’s offense is good. Their defense is struggling – and it seems like it might be mostly a personnel issue. The Broncos are coming off a bye, which I like, their defense is playing at a high level (2nd in the league), which I like, and they have proven they can protect Kyle Orton. That’s too many likes to go with the Ravens.
THE PICK: Denver (+3.5)

Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills
I finally picked a Houston game correctly last week! I don’t love the Texans, particularly on the road, but Buffalo has been terrible. I don’t like that Andre Johnson looks like he’s going to miss this game, particularly because I bet it surprise you to learn that Buffalo has the 10th ranked pass defense. Weather calls for cold(ish) and clear, so we’re not going to be asking Matt Schaub for that much. Hey, look at that! I just talked myself into the Texans.
THE PICK: Houston (-3)

Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears (-14)
Cleveland has the worst defense in the league and the second-worst offense, only besting Oakland. I’d like this a lot better if the line was 10 because I don’t trust the Bears at all, but I’m not betting on Cleveland, well, ever.
THE PICK: Chicago (-14)

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-11)
Walter Jones and Lofa Tatupu hit the IR this week. I was hoping that getting Big Walt back would give the ‘Hawks a shot in the arm. At this point, I’m ready to give the whole organization a shot to the head to put it out of its misery. Can’t we just pack up and start getting ready for next year so no one else gets hurt? Ugh. The Cowboys can be had, but I don’t think it happens this week.
THE PICK: Dallas (-11)

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-4)
Yuck. And if you think that’s a cop out because I don’t have anything interesting to say and don’t want to do any research, you’re right.
THE PICK: Detroit (-4)

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts (-12.5)*
If you read today’s introduction, you already know where I’m going. It looks like Reggie Wayne might not play this week and I don’t even care. The 49ers are a year away, the the Colts are the most under the radar undefeated team in the league.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-12.5)

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-4)
The Fins beat the Jets back in Week 5 on Monday night by 4 on a last second touchdown. The Jets defense has only gotten worse and Miami looks like they’re rounding into shape. A trouncing of the Raiders last week was certainly the medicine the Jets needed, but I don’t see them stopping the Dolphins’ ground game. In the words of Greg Roberts, they got the wrong team favored.
THE PICK: Miami (+4)

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)*
The Eagles looked just flat out horrendous against Oakland and then came out of the bye and allowed 17 points to the woefully inept Redskins, losing their best player (Brian Westbrook) in the process. The Giants have had a tough couple of weeks but the Eagles’ OL looks to be a serious problem. I bet we see Kevin Kolb by the third quarter.
THE PICK: NY Giants (+3)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3)
Is this the first time in history an 0-6 team has been the favorite? Did you know the Titans were 3 point favorites over the Jags in Week 4 and lost by 20? At home? Have they suddenly gotten better? All they added during the bye week was a quarterback controversy. I liked Jeff Fisher’s quote from today – “I’m in [Kerry] Collins’ corner because I don’t think our record is a reflection of our quarterback play. As far as the future is concerned, I’m not one of those coaches that’s going to have musical chairs at the quarterback position”. Jeff, I like you and everything, but you’re totally missing the point. The season is over. Even if you win out, your chances at a wild card are slim. Just put Vince in and see what happens already.
THE PICK: Jacksonville (+3)

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-17)
Oakland gets up for San Diego. The Raiders defense is pretty good, and the Chargers have looked pretty crappy pretty much all season. This line is pretty ridiculous. I like the Chargers to win, but Oakland to cover.
THE PICK: Oakland (-17)

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3)
The Brett Favre bowl is finally here! And yes, I know these teams played in Week 4 but that wasn’t at Lambeau. I have no doubt Mr. Rodgers can throw right along with the old man, but Ryan Grant is no Adrian Peterson.
THE PICK: Minnesota (+3)

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9)
For weeks I’ve been touting the theory that Arizona sucks. While they might till be wildly inconsistent, they definitely don’t suck. They beat the Giants on the road last week, and I did not see that coming. I think they beat a woeful Carolina team by two TDs.
THE PICK: Arizona (-9)

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-10)*
I typed that asterisk before writing this paragraph then hesitated. The Falcons are a quality opponent, and we saw the Saints have some trouble last week with Miami…hmmm. Well, Steve Spagnuolo Tony Sparano did a great job disrupting the Saints offense early on last week, and it almost worked until the Dolphins defense tired toward the end. I still like the Falcons this year, but let’s take a look at the Saints record against the spread this season:

Wk1: (-13) v. Lions – Win by 18
Wk2: (-1) @ Eagles – Win by 26
Wk3: (-6) @ Buffalo – Win by 20
Wk4: (-7) v. Jets – Win by 14
Wk5: bye
Wk6: (-3) v. Giants – Win by 21
Wk7: (-7) @ Miami – Win by 12

The Lesson? I think so far, the lesson is don’t bet against the Saints.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-10)

Week 7: 7-5-1

Season: 54-47-2

3 Team Tease Record: 1-0 (Started in Week 7)

Week 7 NFL Picks

2009 October 23

1 Comment

tags: cheerleaders, gambling, lines, NFL, Picks, spread

by Keifer Nandez

Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.

Yeah, I don't know either.

You know, every week I search for a cheerleader picture that meets one or more of three criteria:

Hot
Pertinent to my column angle
Inspires some kind of joke

And inevitably, as I poke through all the available files, more often than not the pictures that catch my eye are those of the Redskins cheer squad. They are by far the squad most often captured in compromising positions, doing things that would make your slutty friend’s facebook page look tame. So I don’t know what the deal is in Washington, whether you have an extra racy cheer squad, a particularly pervy camera guy or what, but at least all you ‘Skins fans have something else to look at while suffering through another embarrassing football performance at RFK.

Today’s picture is simply a symbol of my futility of late. Clearly I don’t know what I’m talking about. Perhaps I’m not putting in the requisite amount of research required like I was earlier in the season. Perhaps I’m emotionally drained from two subpar weeks in a row. Perhaps I’m too busy trying to get another project off the ground (which, if successful, will house these picks pieces as well). Or perhaps it’s just things like Pittsburgh (-14) winning by 13, Minnesota (-3) winning by 2, the Eagles…what’s that? I picked Seattle and they lost by 24? Oh, right. Well, I must be due for a run then. Let’s do it.

Oh, I almost forgot! I’m going to start adding a asterisk on 3 games that I would bet as a teaser. That way, you can lose more money all at once!

San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans (-3)
Last week I even said Cincy was due for a letdown and still picked against the Texans, so I don’t even listen to my own advice. Frank Gore returns for the Niners this week, but they are traveling 2 hours east for the early game, so this one will kick off at 11 AM Niner-body-clock time. I wouldn’t gamble on this game with someone else’s money, but I’ve got to pick someone, and if Houston’s pass blocking holds up, I think they win this game (Let the record reflect that I am 1-5 picking Texans’ games this year, and the only win was the cover against Oakland. Yeeesh.).
THE PICK: Houston (-3)

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers might be 2-3, but they didn’t look terrible on Monday against the Broncos, minus the special teams of course. Perhaps if Kansas City still had Dante Hall I’d be worried.
THE PICK: San Diego (-4.5)

Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams
This is nice. I like it when you take a great offensive team and bring them into a dome against an abjectly terrible host.
THE PICK: Indianapolis (-13)*

New England Patriots (-15) “@” Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The “@” is in parentheses because this game is in London. One of these teams is a well-coached, impeccably run organization. The other is O-fer on the year and has a rookie head coach who routinely gives his players backhanded compliments because he’s too foolish to shut his mouth. Who do you think is going to deal with the weird circumstances better?
THE PICK: New England (-15)

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
One of the first things I do when a dome team is traveling is look at the weather report. Particularly in the case of the Vikings and Old Man Favre and his speedy receivers, being inside is a huge advantage. Heinz Field is a notoriously nasty surface, and it is raining now, but it’s projected to be 60 degrees and sunny on Sunday. I like the Vikings here.
THE PICK: Minnesota (+3.5)

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns
I think this is the game where the Packers turn the corner. They’re getting healthy and this is their second cupcake in a row.
THE PICK: Green Bay (-7.5)*

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
Mark Sanchez threw 5 picks against the Bills last week. They allowed more than 300 yards rushing to the Jets. The Bills still needed OT to win. Do you think Carolina’s tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams is better than Thomas Jones and Leon Washington? Maybe not, but they are at least on par. Put it this way: Carolina was good last year, and they are capable of moving the ball. Buffalo was not and is not.
THE PICK: Carolina (-7.5)

New York Jets (-6) @ Oakland Raiders
Yikes. After the Sanchez bed-shitting mentioned above I’m reticent to bet money on him again. But I’ll tell you what doesn’t matter: That the Raiders beat the Eagles last week. The Eagles are famous for pulling that crap, and they seemingly do it each and every year. Besides, I think Rex Ryan goes into Flacco mode and leans on his backs to get this W in the books.
THE PICK: NY Jets (-6)

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
The Bears have a quality rushing defense and Carson Palmer has not looked good. I hate picking the bears because I hate Jay Cutler’s face, but it’s the right thing to do.
THE PICK: Chicago (+1)

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Why can’t I buy into the fact that Dallas just isn’t very good? Is it my continued hope that Tony Romo can bounce back and rescue more than one of my fantasy teams? Is it the uniforms? The stadium? The memory of the 2007 Cowboys/Patriots game that has to rank up there in all-time entertainment value? Atlanta is the better team, right? Particularly if Roddy White’s awoken from his early season coma, right? RIGHT?!
THE PICK: Atlanta (+3)

New Orleans (-7) @ Miami Dolphins
This game looks fun. Miami’s been playing well and the spread seems to invite the underdog pick. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they still have a rookie QB, lost early to teams like the Falcons and the Chargers, and barely beat the Jets. New Orleans is awesome, and for the first team this season has a clean injury report. Drew Brees will not allow the Saints to lose this game.
THE PICK: New Orleans (-7)*

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7)
I hate this game. There’s just something about the Giants that I’m still not sold on. Win this one by 14 and we’ll talk.
THE PICK: NY Giants (-7)

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins
Philly may have laid an egg last week, but I have a gambling rule: Always bet against a team that pseudo fires their coach via public neutering and chooses an old man who’s been out of the league for years and has 6 days to prepare to call their plays. I mean, it’s just common sense. Good rule, though.
THE PICK: Philadelphia (-7)

Week 6: 6-8
Season: 47-42-1

Week 6 NFL Picks

2009 October 16

Week 5 NFL Picks

2009 October 9

1 Comment

tags: gambling, NFL, nfl picks, spread

by Keifer Nandez

Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.

The question of the Broncos being real or fake doesn't stop with the team.

Conventional wisdom says that we don’t really know anything about how the current NFL season is going to look until Week 4 is complete. It certainly seems like you can just chuck that out the window this week. Am I the only one that feels like things have not only not shaken out, but simply gotten more muddled and confusing? Add that to a weak slate of games this week (and honestly, I would rather watch the WNBA Finals than some of these terrible games – ok, that’s a lie) where two turds battle for supremacy of the dungpile and a bunch of double digit lines and frankly, I’m scared to even write down my predictions let alone get real money involved.

So with all that depressing football on the horizon, let’s talk for a moment about my current favorite thing on the internet: Black Dynamite! Since I was a young tyke, I’ve had an affinity for the blaxplotation genre, mostly because of Shaft and the associated Isaac Hayes music. This fall (one week from today, to be exact), Michael Jai White, whose name and face you probably know but you’ll be damned if you can figure out from where, is bringing back the Kung-Fu fightin’, jive-turkey huntin’, no-shit-takin’ anti-hero. Before we jump right to the trailer let’s have a quick refresher course on the star of Black Dynamite, courtesy of a Kill Bill deleted scene:

So, now you know Michael Jai White. But without further ado, shake the tree up from the roots and rake up the fruits:

All you suckas gather round, indeed. Despite all this excellent blacktion, the trailer isn’t even the best part. Oh no, the thing that put me over the edge of unbridled excitement is an internet classic. A Black Dynamite soundboard! Enjoy the next 10 minutes or so of throwback racial infused humor that will make you and your friends laugh and then feel the sting of White Guilt.

And if you think I showed you all that just to rip a page out of the Bill Simmons playbook to come up with a tenuous reason to use my favorite Black Dynamite soundboard quotes to preview this week’s games, then clearly you can dig it.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-9) — “Who the hell is interrupting my Kung Fu?!”
to a Ravens team that I thought was the class of the AFC (and may still be), but couldn’t get it done on the road last week against a suspect Pats D. I’m also not a fan of the 9 point spread, particularly when every single Bengals game this season has been decided by a score in the final minute. That said, the Bengals barely outlasted the truly putrid Browns and have a coach that was content to play for the tie. What the fuck? Content to play for the tie?! Why isn’t Marvin Lewis getting blasted for this? That alone is enough for me to pick Baltimore, but it’s important for them not to the let the upstart Bengals interrupt their Kung Fu, as it were.
THE PICK: Baltimore minus 9

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills (-6) — “If you were in charge, the people might as well surrender to whitey now. ‘Cause your survival skills ain’t worth a damn.”
to two coaches in Dick Jauron and Eric Mangini who may not even make it to their team’s bye week. Winning this game is like winning the spelling bee in special ed. Note that I didn’t use the classic “smartest kid in special ed” version of that joke, because the reality is that even winning this game won’t make either one of these guys the smartest retard, I’m pretty sure that title would have to be wrested from the grasp of Jim Zorn. Let’s hope for fantasy reasons Marshawn Lynch can get right against the 31st ranked Browns rushing D. Speaking of Zorn…
THE PICK: Buffalo minus the 6

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (-4) — “I will not hesitate to the lay the hammer down on any clown that comes around”
to Steve Smith (1.0) and DeAngelo Hall, who have long hated each other and tend to spend the bulk of these games jawing at each other. Now that DeAngelo Hall has been exposed as a fraud and Steve Smith has been rendered mostly irrelevant due to Jake Delhomme’s descent into the abyss, perhaps these two will get punchy for old times sake. Hell, that would be better than this game and the last Mayweather fight. After all, if the game above is the Special Ed spelling bee, than the winner of this game is the gold medalist at the Special Olympics. Speaking of Delhomme, he gets his own quote: “Tidy, get pimpin Jake out my trunk. Tell him the rest of my money be Wednesday or I’ll make him stick himself.”
THE PICK: Carolina minus the 4

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Detroit Lions — “I’d like to take the credit but dig mama, there’s no I in revolut…in team.”
Can you recall another athlete in recent memory who got the same kind of treatment from the media that Ben Roethlisberger does? This dude is notorious for being next to awful for the majority of games and then somehow manages to pull one Peyton Manning style strike out of his ass late in fourth quarter, only he doesn’t always pull it off. When he does, you’d think he won the game single handedly, and when he doesn’t, it’s generally someone else’s fault: the running game, the defense, Limas “Stone Hands” Sweed. The best thing you can say about Ben’s relationship with the media is that at least he’s not Brett Favre. In all seriousness, it’s the Steelers against a Lions team with injury questions at QB and a crappy defense.
THE PICK: Steelers minus 10.5

Dallas Cowboys (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs — “Breathe deeply, baby.”
to Tony Romo, who has been under fire since Week 2 as if the Cowboys struggles are all his fault. Tony needs to take a deep breath in the red zone and trust his arm, but he doesn’t play on Dallas’s bottom-fourth-of-the-league defense, it’s not his fault his receivers are a miasma of fecal stench, and he’s only thrown one pick in the two weeks since the awful three pick game against the Giants that set the media to grabbing his Will Smith white boy ears and giving him what for. I expect Tony to get back on track and Dallas to get the W, but not by 9.
THE PICK: Kansas City plus 9

Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants (-16) — “Black Dynamite, I wanna thank you for taking care of us girls while we was down and out and didn’t have no pimp”
For all the Raiders but JaMarcus Russell. I’m starting to have genuine sympathy for the Raiders (not for their fans of course, but for the actual players). Money aside, it would suck to achieve your dream of playing in the NFL only to get stuck with a terrible QB, an owner who is half dead and all senile, and a coach who makes a habit of punching assistants that disagree with him. The Raiders desperately need a new pimp.
THE PICK: New York Giants minus 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-15.5) — “I AM smiling.”
To Donovan McNabb, who seems to get hated on for smiling at the wrong times and not being a tough enough leader. Well, Eagles fans, I guess you get to find out for real this time when McRib takes the first tough shot to his tender midsection. Smiling? Or Grimacing? Luckily for you, it’s the the Bucs, who’ve been nothing short of horrendous all season.
THE PICK: Philadelphia minus 15.5

Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ St. Louis Rams — “Keep it tight and outta sight”
Hey Vikings, just win this going away and keep the damn Rams off of my TV, ya dig?
THE PICK: Minnesota minus 10

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) — “Yes, I would like some of that ass.”
To the only game on the schedule that looks like it might not only be entertaining but might tell us something important about both of these teams. On paper this appears to come down to defense, and San Fran has the distinct advantage. I look for the Niners to keep it on the ground and probably bury the Falcons’ running backs into the ground.
THE PICK: San Francisco minus 2.5

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) — “Come on you jive turkeys. What kind of run down is this?”
The only thing about this game that surprises me is that Vegas felt the need to install the Cards as near-touchdown favorites. It feels like the right line here to entice the most betting would be 3. These teams are both wildly schizophrenic. I’m taking Houston simply because Matt Schaub’s been on a roll, the Cards pass defense can be had (pick on The Gambler, AKA, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and Mario Williams is going to break Kurt Warner’s pelvis.
THE PICK: Houston and the 5.5

New England Patriots (-3) @ Denver Broncos — “Stick with me baby. I’ll have you farting through silk.
To both Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels, former life partners who went their separate ways when Tom decided to settle down with his beard. Brady’s skittishness had the Pats fans in a tizzy to start the season, and although he still looks a bit fearful, you have to believe he’s going to get into a groove here soon. McDaniels may have been doing it with smoke and mirrors – remeber, the 4-0 Broncos have beaten the Bengals (on a miracle play), the Browns, the Raiders, and a crappy Cowboys team. On the other hand, the Broncos beat the two abjectly terrible teams in that list by 20, so they’re not all fluff. I just have a feeling the Pats get it done this week, and if they win, they’re going to win by more than 3.
THE PICK: New England minus 3

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks (PK) — “Anaconda Malt Liquor gives you oooooh.”
Because anyone watching this game will need to be drunk as fuck. Supposedly the line is off because know one knows if Hasselbeck’s going to play, but let me drop this on you: Three of the starting offensive lineman for the Seahawks are out this week. Get ready to run the jailbreak offense, Seneca! Can’t wait to see Mike Teel!
THE PICK: Jacksonville

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans — “Cream Corn, that’s why they call me that. Smooth.”
Peyton Manning simply looks like the Manning I grew to know and hate in the first part of the decade, only this time without all the jittery, lumpy parts. Somehow Peyton has found the key to an ice cold facade punctuated with downfield strikes. The Titans? They’re done. I hope you don’t get fired, Jeff Fisher, but if you do, how about seeing about that mess in Oakland? I here they’re looking for a new pimp.
THE PICK: Indianapolis minus 3.5

New York Jets (-1) @ Miami Dolphins — “Let everybody know and suckas be warned, that this is the outome when you mess with Bullhorn.”
This actually has nothing to do with this game, it just sounds like something Jets coach Rex Ryan might say at a postgame press conference. I like a one point line, it’s just a question of “Who do you think is going to win this game”. I think Jets.
THE PICK: New York Jets minus 1

Week 4: 7-7

Season: 37-25

And some final advice for all you prospective gamblers:
”I hope you don’t think you’re gonna get any of this cookie… cause if I offered you some of this cookie, this cookie might kill you.”

Week 4 NFL Picks

2009 October 1

1 Comment

by Keifer Nandez

Disagree? Tell me about it in the comments.

Perhaps the rest of the league doesn't mind being behind the Ravens.

Clearly, I’m still buying into the Ravens. And if you’re not, I believe Lindi here makes a really solid argument. We’re pressed for time this week, so let’s just get right to it.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10)
Hold on, let me copy my paragraph about the Lions from last week…

The Lions scored 27 against a lower level defense in the Saints, followed by 13 against a pretty decent defense in the Vikings. Would you agree that the Redskins defense is probably somewhere in the middle? Let’s assume the Lions put up 20 points this week. Do you really believe the Redskins can score 27 to cover? Me neither.

Second verse, same as the first:

The Lions scored 27 on the Saints, 13 on a better D in the Vikings, and then 29 on a defense in the middle of those two in the Redskins. Would you agree that the Bears defense is probably a bit better than the Redskins? Let’s assume the Lions put up 17 points this week. Do you really think the Bears can score 27 to cover? Me neith…Wait, you said yes? Well, would it interest you to know that Chicago has scored 15 points at Green Bay, who allowed 31 to the Bengals the following week, 17 against Pittsburgh (without Troy Palomalu) at home, and 25 at Seattle against a depleted (and already suspect) Seahawks defense? Chicago still can’t run the ball, and I think this line is high enough that I like the points.
THE PICK: Detroit and the 10

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns
The return of Derrick Anderson! Because starting a guy who threw 3 picks in 19 attempts last week is going to give you a *spark*. Cincinnati has given me no reason not to think they can beat what might be the worst team in the league by at least a touchdown. Let me put it this way: I’m benching Tony Romo for Carson Palmer in fantasy this week for a reason.
THE PICK: Cincinnati minus 5.5

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans (-9.5)
What is it about the Raiders? I hate the Raiders, but I love the idea of them being good. It must be the style. The Raiders in their glory days were just about being more athletic, being better than the competition. No complicated schemes here, just man defense and straight up football – after all, this is a team coached by Tom Cable and one that Art Shell was able to coach twice. They looked tough in week one, good enough for me to enjoy a brief dalliance with them (against the Chief though) in Week 2, but now the season’s starting to hit a stride and they’re just back to being terrible. JaMarcus Russell can’t pass and Darren McFadden can’t hang onto the ball. Perhaps is just karmic retribution for shit like this:

Then again, I’ve been to the Coliseum, this just adds authenticity to its distinct penitentiary feel.
THE PICK: Houston minus 9.5

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts (PK)
I can’t seem to find a line for this one, but no matter. After the debacle with the play (not to mention the uniforms) against Chicago, I’m not taking the Seahawks against any half decent team for some time to come.

"Can you believe this shit?!"

THE PICK: Indianapolis

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I don’t know what to make of either of these teams. Tennessee has had some tough losses but has been so horrendously inconsistent that watching them is like watching the final cut of the Everyman movie. Jacksonville is clearly terrible but I’m uncomfortable chalking up last week just to a really bad Houston run defense. I’ll assume Tennessee’s top 5 rushing defense makes the difference here.
THE PICK: Titans minus the 3 (I cannot believe I’m picking the Titans again.)

New York Giants (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs
It seems that many journalists are crowning the Giants as the best team in the NFC almost by defaut? Who have they beaten? A terrible Washington team, a clearly mediocre at best Dallas team (by 2, on a last drive field goal!), and they torched a Tampa Bay team that might challenge the Browns and Rams for the worst team in the league. I may be picking them again them again this week, but that might have more to do with their opponent than anything else.
THE PICK: Giants minus the 9

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3)
It’s nice that people still believe in the Pats enough that they’re giving points to the Ravens this week. It’s not that I think it’s that the Pats can’t win, but their 17th ranked rushing attack against the Ravens #1 rushing defense doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. I said two things last week: I won’t take the Pats again until Tom Brady looks right, and, in regard to the Ravens, ride her ‘til she bucks ya. Perhaps a victory over the Falcons has re-energized the Patriots, but nothing has changed my mind about those sentiments.
THE PICK: Baltimore and the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-7)
Yikes, I feel sorry for whoever’s stuck watching this game on Sunday. Here’s my prediction for Episode One of the Josh Johnson Experience: 11/26, 110 YDS, 0 TD, 2 INT.
THE PICK: Washington minus 7 (in like a 13-3 game)

Buffalo Bills (-2) @ Miami Dolphins
I’m starting to have sympathy for Bills fans. It used to be schadenfreude, because I’m sorry, making it to four Super Bowls in a row and losing them all is just so horrible it’s funny, but nothing’s worse than wear you are now – the best of the bad teams. Always 8-8, 7-9, 10-6, but no playoffs for a decade. I feel for you, but perhaps vandalizing your players’ homes isn’t the best way to encourage quality free agents to come to Buffalo. Just a thought.
THE PICK: Buffalo minus 2

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints (-7)
Mark Sanchez is due for a bad game on the road. That said, when I first looked at this I thought the Saints were a slam dunk but the longer I stare at it the more I worry that the Jets can keep it close with their defense. Darrelle Revis can’t cover everybody, I guess.
THE PICK: New Orleans minus 7

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Denver Broncos
I’d love to come up with something quippy about this game, but the Cowboys looked so awful on Monday Night I just can’t take them against anyone that looks even halfway decent. Perhaps I’ve seen too much of Dallas and not enough Denver, but picking the home dog seems awfully attractive here. Let me put it this way: I’m benching Tony Romo for Carson Palmer in fantasy this week for a reason.
THE PICK: Denver and the 3

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-10)
The Niners are legit. The Rams are terrible. *Insert terrible Glen Coffee joke here* Some options I’m too lazy to choose from: Drip, Instant, Iced, Decaf. Oh yeah, and Kyle Boller will be prominently featured as part of the Rams offense. That sound you hear is Donnie Avery hitting the waiver wire so hard he knocked its eye out.
THE PICK: San Francisco minus 10

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)
Two preseason Super Bowl favorites who have been bad so far and even worse to watch. The Chargers have a knack for playing down to their opponents, and the Steelers clearly have some serious flaws on both sides of the ball. I’d be worried about the Chargers shoddy run D if the Steelers could run the ball at all. This game has all the makings of a slapfight. I’m taking the Chargers here, but just because I don’t think either team is going to win by more than 3.
THE PICK: San Diego and the 5

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
I refuse to discuss Brett Fucking Favre. The Vikings are a miracle TD away from being 2-1, rather than 3-0, and one of those wins was against the Browns. The Packers are 2-1, with a win against the Rams. What I’m saying is, it would appear at first that these teams are nearly even, and if you had asked me before the season which one I thought would win the division, I would have said the Packers. But the Packers are allowing 130 yards a game on the ground, and if they can’t bottle up Adrian Peterson, they can’t win.
THE PICK: Vikings minus 3.5

Week 3: 12-4

Season: 30-18

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